Giddy-Up! Ontario Gas Storage Injections Need to Accelerate

Natural gas storage levels in Canada’s most populous province of Ontario have dipped below the low end of the five-year range in the past few days based on data in RBN’s Canadian NatGas Billboard. With a reading of 196 Bcf on August 12th (blue text in chart below), Ontario storage stands five Bcf below the bottom of the five-year range and at its lowest point for this time of year since 2019 (178 Bcf). The most recent heating season resulted in very strong storage withdrawals during January and February which ultimately sent storage to the low end of the five-year range (see our Analyst Insights of February 10, February 12, and February 20). Since the start of the non-heating season on April 1, the province has injected 102 Bcf up to August 12th, a little behind the five-year average of 111 Bcf for the same timeframe. The storage rebuild was slowed by higher-than-average demand for gas-fired powered generation in April because of unexpected outages at several nuclear power plants. Injections during July and August have been held back by strong power demand driven by air conditioning loads with the province registering its 10th hottest July since 1900 (cooling degree days 27% greater than 2024) and the ninth hottest August to date since 1900 (cooling degree days 67% greater than 2024).