A severe cold spell across Western Canada hit an already tight propane balance, accelerating inventory draws and pushing Edmonton prices sharply higher as the market moved to secure local supply. As a result, the long-standing Edmonton, AB discount to Conway, Kansas collapsed from typical double-digit levels to just a few cents per gallon.
Since 2012, Edmonton has averaged about 18 c/gal under Conway (left graph below), wide enough to incent propane movements from Canada to U.S. markets. As shown in the right graph, this year, that average has narrowed to 15 c/gal. Last week the discount briefly shrank to just 1.5 c/gal and ended the week at 4 c/gal under Conway (blue arrow), an unmistakable signal that the market is adjusting to keep Canadian propane in Canada.
