Utilizing data from RBN’s Canadian NatGas Billboard, Canada’s working gas storage levels are near all-time highs for this time of year. One of the warmest winters for Canada since 1900 has resulted in greatly reduced space heating needs and well below average withdrawals from gas storage across the nation. When considering working gas stocks at the national level (red line, left hand chart below), current working gas of 588 Bcf is estimated to be 37% above the five-year average and 35% above the year ago level. Current working gas is very close to the previous multi-year highs in 2012 (black line) and 2016 (blue line), both of which effectively set the record high for Canadian gas storage.
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- Blog
Feelin' Good Again - For Canadian Producers, the Most Promising Natural Gas Price Outlook in Years
As the new heating season in North America gets under way, the natural gas sector in Canada, the U.S., and even globally, is experiencing a surge in gas prices to levels unseen in many years. In Canada and the U.S., you would have to go way back to 2008-09 to find the most recent instance of $5/MMBtu-plus gas heading into a heating season. As for the rest of the world, it has never experienced prices at the levels reported in the past few months — north of $30/MMBtu in some places. The big question, as always, is: where do we go from here? In today’s RBN blog, we review our 2021 pricing outlook for Canadian gas and discuss our forecast for 2022.
- Blog
Don't Be Afraid - Low Alberta Gas Storage Is Not Spooking the AECO Winter Market, Yet
Alberta natural gas storage, one of the largest regional storage hubs in North America, is experiencing one of its slowest cumulative storage injection rates in years and could be headed to a 13-year low for storage levels by the end of the current injection season. That may seem ominous for the chilly Alberta and Canadian winter heating season, not to mention gas exports to the U.S. So far, though, winter gas forward prices for the Western Canadian gas price benchmark of AECO have registered a relatively modest market response, staying in line with last winter’s average spot price. Today, we take a closer look at the market’s apparent lack of concern over low Alberta gas storage.
- Blog
Back on the Borderline - Canada's Natural Gas Market Remains Mired in Oversupply at Midwinter
The current winter heating season in Canada has seen extremes of warmth and cold, but much more of the former than the latter. Given that the Canadian natural gas market was already oversupplied and struggling with record-high gas storage levels as winter approached, even the most intense cold blast in mid-January wasn’t enough to return the supply/demand balance north of the 49th parallel to anything near normal. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss where the Canadian market stands as the calendar turns to February and what that might mean for end-of-winter gas balances.
