South Texas

No doubt about it, most of the headline-grabbing oil and gas M&A activity lately has involved large, publicly owned producers gobbling up other good-sized E&Ps, lock, stock and barrel. But there are other ways to increase scale and improve operational efficiency, as evidenced by privately held WildFire Energy’s bolt-on acquisition frenzy in the relatively sleepy northeastern Eagle Ford, aka the East Eagle Ford. In less than three years, with one bolt-on acquisition after another, WildFire — named in anticipation of the company’s aggressive expansion strategy — has morphed from a small player in the often-overlooked area into one of the largest producers there, with a laser focus on maximizing returns to its management and private-equity owners. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll look at the E&P and its rapid rise. 

For years, the South Texas NGL market was a world of its own — a self-contained liquids ecosystem centered around the refineries and petrochemical plants in the Corpus Christi area. But that all changed about six years ago when EPIC Midstream built a new NGL pipeline from the Permian into Corpus and a new fractionator to process those liquids. Corpus morphed into a vibrant NGL market in its own right. But nothing with South Texas NGLs is easy. Before the EPIC system was even up and running, a consortium calling itself BANGL — short for Belvieu Alternative NGL — announced another pipeline to compete for Permian NGLs that would parallel EPIC’s route out of the Permian, but then make a hard left toward Sweeny and Texas City, setting up a battle of the pipes for Permian NGLs. 

Kinder Morgan owns and operates natural gas pipelines across pretty much every part of the U.S., from California to Massachusetts and North Dakota to Florida. But if you look at a map of its gas pipeline assets, you’ll notice a focus on lines in the Lone Star State that serve as critical pathways for Permian- and Eagle Ford-sourced gas flowing to Mexico, Texas’s Gulf Coast and a number of existing and planned LNG export terminals. Now, Kinder is poised to significantly expand its pipeline network in that part of the world with the planned $1.8 billion acquisition of NextEra Energy Partners’ STX Midstream unit, as we discuss in today’s RBN blog. 

The South Texas NGL market has always been a world of its own, a self-contained liquids ecosystem running from Brownsville to Markham, a distant 200 miles from the NGL epicenter at Mont Belvieu. In recent years, however, the South Texas market has been undergoing radical change, first with the emergence of the Eagle Ford basin, then with the onslaught of Permian production and, most recently, with the aptly named EPIC NGL Pipeline and new fractionation capacity in greater Corpus Christi. More supply and demand are on the way, with new pipes, exports, and the largest ethane-only petrochemical plant in the world under construction. And with these developments, a strategy by several large, well-financed players has emerged – to develop an NGL storage and fractionation hub competitive with Month Belvieu. Today, we begin a series to examine the South Texas NGL market and how changes there will impact flows, utilization, and pricing across North America and beyond.

South Texas is emerging as the newest premium destination for natural gas supply in the U.S.   Demand in the area is expected to grow much faster than local production, creating a supply shortage in the region by early 2018. New pipeline capacity will be needed to move incremental supply into South Texas. There are several projects planned to facilitate southbound capacity on pipelines running along the Gulf Coast Industrial Corridor. Today we examine the planned pipeline capacity and whether it will be enough to serve the coming demand.

U.S. natural gas exports drove a significant portion of overall gas demand growth in 2016 and are expected to continue being the primary demand driver over the next several years. Much of this export demand will be emerging along the Texas-Mexico border and at planned LNG export terminals along the southern Texas Gulf Coast. But production in the South Texas region is not expected to grow nearly as quickly or robustly as demand, setting the stage for supply constraints and premium pricing in the South Texas market and making the area a target destination for producers and pipeline companies. For example, on Wednesday, Enterprise announced the possibility of a new pipeline from Orla, TX, in the Permian Basin to Agua Dulce in South Texas. So how will all of this play out? Today, we continue our series analyzing the gas supply and demand balance in South Texas, this time with a look at the demand side and the resulting market balance.

There is a premium natural gas market developing in South Texas, where exports to Mexico could rise by more than 2.0 Bcf/d over the next four years and gas liquefaction and LNG export facilities are expected to add another 1.8 Bcf/d of demand to the market in that time. While gas production from the nearby Eagle Ford Shale is showing signs of at least a partial comeback and will help meet some of this new demand, the South Texas market may be heading toward being short supply in the next few years, resulting in higher prices there relative to surrounding markets. That would make the South Texas market an attractive destination for supply as far north as the Marcellus and Utica shales. In fact, there is a slew of proposed southbound pipeline projects extending deep into Texas along the Texas Gulf Coast for shippers to get their gas there. But how much incremental supply will be needed to balance the market? Today we begin a series analyzing the gas supply and demand balance in South Texas, starting with prospects for production growth out of the Eagle Ford Shale.

There was a lot of hand wringing and gnashing of teeth last week in energy markets, and it had nothing to do with the OPEC non-event.  Instead, the focus was Kinder Morgan (KMI), granddaddy of U.S. midstream companies, and usually a darling of analysts and media.  Not this time.   Over the past few days the stock has been hammered, Moody’s downgraded its debt, and a lot of folks in the market have been trying to figure out what is going on.   Particularly since all the hubbub would seem to be about a relatively minor investment (in energy infrastructure terms) in a pipeline called Natural Gas Pipeline of America, or NGPL, one of the oldest of the long-line systems in the U.S., which came online 84 years ago and Kinder Morgan has owned all (or part of) since 1999.  In today’s blog, we look at this pipeline system and what it tells us about the current state of the natural gas markets.

At a time when market prices have been weakened by a surplus of new natural gas production waiting for demand to develop, Mexico has been stepping up to the plate by increasing imports.  Gas demand for Mexican power generation, industrial use, and commercial and residential space heating continues to increase at a torrid pace south of the Rio Grande, much to the relief of gas producers in the Eagle Ford, the Permian Basin and other U.S. plays within reach of the international border. Today we provide an update on Mexico’s growing dependence on U.S.-sourced gas, and the implications for producers and midstream companies.

After NYMEX WTI climbed higher all last week, topping $90/Bbl, euro-zone worries yesterday caused a 4 percent fall in crude to close at $88.14/Bbl. That is a still a long way above  estimates of $50/Bbl break-even prices for crude produced from Eagle Ford shale. Oil production in the Eagle Ford is now close to 600 MB/d and estimated by Bentek to rise to over 700 MB/d by the end of this year. This South Texas play is attracting producers like bees to a honey pot. Midstream infrastructure projects are springing up left right and center. In the first of a series we look at how Eagle Ford crude prices compare to the Bakken.