Crop Drying

It’s the 10-year anniversary of a polar vortex winter that’s seared into the memories of every propaner who lived through it. Shortages. High prices. Government inquiries. Sure, there were difficulties during that winter in the markets for natural gas and fuel oil too, but it was particularly bad for propane. It seemed like a perfect storm hit the propane market right where it hurt the most — in the heart of propane country: the Upper Midwest and the Northeast. A lot has changed since then, but it’s important to look back at what went wrong, what’s been done to make a repeat of that chaotic winter far less likely, and what those events still mean for the propane market today. 

Propane stockpiled in Canada has often been a mid-winter godsend for propane consumers in the U.S. Midwest and Great Plains states. If supplies in PADD 2 ever got tight due to unusually cold weather, greater-than-normal crop-drying demand and/or kinks in the U.S. supply chain, the higher prices spurred by the shortfall would incent more Canadian propane to be piped, railed or trucked south. This winter may be different, though. A new propane export terminal in British Columbia and steady-as-she-goes exports from the U.S.’s northern neighbor to PADDs 2 and 5 have left Canadian propane inventories nearly one-third lower than a year ago, and propane in the Edmonton, AB, hub is selling at a far-from-typical premium to propane at Conway, KS, and Mont Belvieu, TX. Today, we explain why a supply-demand imbalance in the U.S. heartland this winter might be harder to fix.

Cold weather and spiking demand from Midwest and Great Plains farmers trying to dry their late-maturing, soggy crops have sent the PADD 2 propane market into a tizzy. Supply is not a major issue — propane inventory levels in the region are only a little below average, and stocks are plentiful along the Gulf Coast in PADD 3 — but distributing propane by rail and truck for crop-drying use has been a bigger-than-normal problem. As a result, farmers are scrambling to get more of the fuel, and propane prices in the U.S. heartland have been skyrocketing. Worse yet, Canada may not be able to come to the rescue as it has in the past, because its propane exports to Asia are up and its inventories are down. Today, we review recent developments on the fuel front in the nation’s breadbasket.

The U.S. propane industry is evolving rapidly in response to increasing production and the resulting development of new market demand sectors in exports and PDH plants to make “on-purpose” propylene. Two years ago in the winter of 2013-2014 all the new production growth could not prevent a perfect storm of weather events from causing severe shortages and price distress for domestic customers in the Mid-Continent and East Coast regions. Today we describe how the propane market is now much better equipped to endure a similar spell of extreme demand.

Traditional domestic propane markets were dominated by seasonal consumer demand in the Northeast and Mid-Continent and petrochemical industry demand in the Gulf Coast region. Today domestic demand is still dominated by these two sectors although consumer use is declining slowly while new propane dehydrogenation (PDH) plants look set to boost chemical demand. Meantime the bounty of shale production has swamped domestic consumer needs – making exports by far the largest growth sector. Today we continue our deep dive review of the propane market.

Surging domestic propane production in PADD 1 (East Coast) and PADD 2 (Mid-Continent) over the past four years is unlikely to result in an increase in traditional consumer propane demand in those regions, even with today’s lower overall domestic propane prices.  Most propane use in those markets is from the residential and commercial sectors, and that demand has been in a slow, steady decline for years due to competition from electricity and natural gas, efficiency improvements and the general population shift to warmer states.   In fact, the only sector of the U.S. market expected to see an increase in propane demand in the next few years is for its use as a feedstock to produce petrochemicals.  Most petrochemical demand has traditionally been centered at the Gulf Coast but is projected to expand on the East Coast as well. Today we detail current and projected propane demand.

Surging production of natural gas liquids (NGLs) from the prolific Northeast Marcellus/Utica, the North Dakota Bakken and the Texas Permian and Eagle Ford basins over the past four years has transformed U.S. propane supply. More than half of that growth has come from the Northeast (PADD I) and the Mid-Continent (PADD II), which is particularly significant for the propane market since those two regions make up almost 80% of U.S. consumer propane demand.  That makes these two regions far more self-reliant than they were before the shale era. Today we look at RBN’s propane production outlook to 2025.

Yesterday (June 2, 2015) spot prices for propane at Edmonton, Alberta were assessed by OPIS at an average of -0.625 cnts/gal (-26.25 cnts/Bbl). Yes you read correctly – the price was negative – meaning that producers will PAY YOU to take their propane away in Edmonton. Prices at Edmonton have been below zero before at least twice in the past 2 weeks and they averaged just 2.4 cnts/gal during May. Propane has fallen on hard times in the U.S. as well with Mont Belvieu Gulf Coast trading hub prices reaching13 year lows under 33 cnts/gal last week (back up to 44 cnts/gal yesterday) and the ratio of propane prices to U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude hitting an all time low under 24%. Today we begin a new series on propane with a look at the Edmonton market.

Last winter a Midwest propane shortage of epic proportions caused prices at the Conway, KS trading hub to spike over $4/Gal in January 2014 (nearly twice the price of crude oil at the time). The shortage was caused by a perfect storm of events starting with high propane demand from farmers for crop drying in the late fall and ending with record retail and commercial heating demand during the Polar Vortex cold weather in January. The high demand was compounded by the partial closure of the Kinder Morgan Cochin pipeline supplying propane to the Midwest from Western Canada and a temporary shutdown of the Hess Tioga fractionation plant in North Dakota, not to mention booming Gulf Coast propane exports reducing domestic availability. This year the Midwest propane market appears to be much better supplied in spite of the loss of the Cochin pipeline that has now been reversed to carry diluent to Canada. Prices should therefore be less volatile than last year – unless Mother Nature throws another icy winter curve ball. Today we look Midwest propane prices and supply this year.

US natural gas liquids (NGL) production is growing fast, and surplus volumes are moving to export markets.  NGL production from natural gas processors increased from 1.7 MMb/d in early 2009 to 3.0 MMb/d this year (2014), and it is expected to continue growing to 4.5 MMb/d by 2019. Despite the important role of NGLs, these markets are not well understood, both due to their complexity and the unique aspects of their production, transportation, storage and use.  One of the most misunderstood aspects of NGL markets – the extraction of NGLs from natural gas, is the subject of RBN’s latest Drill-Down Report.  In today’s blog we’ll look at highlights of the report which reviews the basics of natural gas processing, current NGL markets, an outlook for NGL production, the health of NGL processing as measured by the Frac Spread, and a detailed review of RBN’s gas processing economics model.