Brazil

The West Coast energy market, PADD 5, is undergoing a profound transformation. Consumption of petroleum-based refined products is declining due to a host of factors including increased renewable diesel (RD) usage, slowing population growth, electric vehicle (EV) penetration and fuel efficiency improvements, just to name a few, but that’s only half the story. Further upping the stakes, crude oil production in the region has declined faster than downstream consumption, so it has had to increasingly rely on imported barrels to support its dwindling refinery throughput. In today’s RBN blog, we look at how the West Coast’s supply of refined products and crude oil has evolved over time and why its reliance on imports has grown. 

We are getting into the peak summer driving season and gasoline demand has been hitting all-time highs. You might think that inventories would be drawing down and that the U.S. would need to import more gasoline and gasoline blending components. But not so. U.S. refineries are cranking out the products. Gasoline stocks are up 10% from a year ago—15 million barrels (MMbbl) higher than the top of the five-year range—and last week gasoline inventories made a contra-seasonal move upward, increasing by 1.4 MMbbl.  Net exports for the first quarter were up almost five times the same period in 2015. But what does all this mean for refined product markets in general, and gasoline balances in particular? Today, we examine the state of U.S. petroleum product markets.

The race to load the first freely exported U.S. crude cargo was won by NuStar’s Corpus Christi terminal, edging out Enterprise’s Houston terminal, as the Theo T set sail for Italy on New Year’s Eve with Eagle Ford crude and condensate on board. Midstream companies are now set to fiercely compete, not just for bragging rights but for terminal fees, as more U.S. crude heads overseas. But where exactly will that crude go? With oil prices tracking below $40/Bbl and narrow differentials prevailing between U.S. and overseas crudes, breaking into new markets will be tough. Today we outline which markets are most likely to absorb U.S. crude supply.