Australia

Woodside Energy’s final investment decision (FID) on the $17.5 billion Louisiana LNG terminal was a stunner. For one thing, only 1 million metric tons per annum (MMtpa) of the project’s 16.5 MMtpa (2.2 Bcf/d) of capacity is under contract — U.S. LNG export projects typically have commitments for two-thirds or more of their output before pulling the trigger. The project will also have an outsized impact on gas flows in a region already struggling to keep up, and it may well upend plans for other projects in the works. In today’s RBN blog, we take a closer look at Louisiana LNG, Woodside’s daring development approach, and the terminal’s impacts on gas demand, gas flows and pre-FID projects. 

Woodside Energy’s final investment decision (FID) on the $17.5 billion Louisiana LNG terminal was a stunner. For one thing, only 1 million metric tons per annum (MMtpa) of the project’s 16.5 MMtpa (2.2 Bcf/d) of capacity is under contract — U.S. LNG export projects typically have commitments for two-thirds or more of their output before pulling the trigger. The project will also have an outsized impact on gas flows in a region already struggling to keep up, and it may well upend plans for other projects in the works. In today’s RBN blog, we take a closer look at Louisiana LNG, Woodside’s daring development approach, and the terminal’s impacts on gas demand, gas flows and pre-FID projects.

About 60% of global LNG imports in 2023 came from only three countries — Australia, Qatar and the U.S. — sometimes dubbed the “LNG Trinity.” All three are geographically remote from each other and differ considerably in terms of configuration, politics, economics and strategy. But all three are looking to consolidate and potentially grow their global presence at a time when expectations regarding future LNG demand are evolving and the role of natural gas is shifting to become increasingly complementary to intermittent renewable sources. In today’s RBN blog, we look at the differences within the LNG Trinity and how they may impact — and be impacted by — developments in the global gas market. 

As recently as the mid-to-late 2000s, the U.S. was expected to become a major importer of LNG. Instead, the opposite occurred. Once forecast to need tens of millions of metric tons of LNG each year to meet its own power needs, the U.S. is now producing about the same amount and sending it out to Asia, Europe, and other overseas markets. That swing — from the expectation of being a major LNG importer to the reality of being a top-tier producer/exporter — has had a huge impact on the global market, and the influence of that reversal cannot be overemphasized. In today’s RBN blog, we look at how U.S. production has moved LNG closer to being a global commodity, the effect of growing U.S. production on the market, and prospects for future growth.

Among the 21 countries able to liquefy methane and export LNG, Australia, Qatar, and the U.S. are the hands-down leaders, holding more than half the world’s liquefaction capacity among them. For now, Australia holds the top position but its capacity buildout is all but complete. While a number of liquefaction projects are planned Down Under, only one has reached the final investment decision (FID) stage in 2021, and it’s relatively small. Future growth seems much more likely to come from the two other big guns. Developers in the U.S. are cautiously thawing the plans for LNG projects they put on ice in mid-2020, when global natural gas prices slumped along with economies during the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic. And in February, Qatar, which was runner-up to Australian capacity until it slipped to third place due to recent U.S. additions, took FID on the first of two supersized projects to expand its LNG capacity. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss Qatar’s expansion plans and how they relate to developments elsewhere.

The U.S. and Australia have been ramping up their LNG exports — Australia already is the world’s second-largest LNG exporter after Qatar and the U.S. will soon rank third. Two recent events highlight the difference between the two countries and their natural gas markets. First, in June the Australian prime minister acted to curtail LNG exports next year because of gas-supply shortages affecting domestic consumers. Second, on July 19, the Potential Gas Committee released its biennial analysis of recoverable gas resources in the U.S.; its findings support the view that U.S. LNG exports can continue growing without causing domestic supply constraints. Today we review the PGC report and the Australian LNG/supply situation, then compare the two markets.

Few factors will have a greater effect on future U.S. natural gas production—or gas pricing—than the degree to which U.S. LNG exporters are successful in penetrating Asian, European and other markets. The dozen liquefaction/LNG export facilities now under construction along the Gulf and East coasts could demand up to 7 Bcf/d, or about one-tenth of current U.S. production. It’s possible, though, that demand could be far less if U.S. LNG can’t compete successfully, or several Bcf/d higher if exporter success leads to development of additional projects. Today, we review our latest Drill Down Report on the international LNG market and how U.S. exporters may fare.

As natural gas takes on an ever-expanding role in Asian energy markets, the traditional practice of sourcing liquefied natural gas (LNG) through long-term, “point-to-point” supply deals at oil-indexed prices is being challenged on several fronts. For one, U.S. exporters are linking the price of their LNG to Henry Hub gas prices. For another, Asian LNG customers, eager to reduce costs in a suddenly glutted LNG market, are working to renegotiate their oil-linked deals, and turning to the LNG spot market, where prices have been attractively low. Fast-changing market dynamics include planned gas pipelines from Siberia to China that may well make the Asian LNG market more like Europe, where LNG competes head-to-head with piped-in gas and with coal. Today, we continue our look at the changing international market and what it means for U.S. and Canadian gas producers and LNG exports.

The international market for liquefied natural gas (LNG) is an inherently risky business where returns depend on paying back huge upfront infrastructure investments with cash flows based on volatile energy prices. Tectonic shifts in the market are giving North American LNG exporters and natural gas producers an opportunity to become pivotal players. The world is on the cusp of an LNG supply glut that may last several years, and the old order of long-term supply contracts with prices indexed to oil is being phased out in favor of a market structure that features more destination flexibility, more spot market sales—and, for U.S. and maybe some Canadian and Mexican LNG exporters—more liquefaction “tolling” deals with LNG prices linked to gas. Today, we continue our look at what these changes mean for the North American energy sector.