The International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook 2025 (WEO 2025) represents a big shift in how the agency is framing the future of global energy. After several editions that leaned hard into an accelerated energy transition, the IEA has brought back its Current Policies Scenario (CPS), a baseline view built solely on policies that are on the books today — not those announced, proposed or aspirational. For folks watching global crude markets, especially in the U.S. oil and gas patch, that is a lot more than just a structural tweak to the outlook. It’s a clear signal that the IEA sees a growing disconnect between its earlier assumptions and how energy demand is really playing out. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll dig into what’s changed and why it matters.
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As shown in Figure 1 below, the IEA’s outlook has, in recent years, anchored its long-term oil demand projections around two main scenarios: Net Zero Emissions (NZE; green line) and Stated Policies (aka STEPS; orange line). The NZE envisions an aggressive energy transition pathway, with global oil demand falling steeply to around 25 MMb/d by 2050. STEPS assumes partial implementation of announced government policies, with demand peaking near 100 MMb/d in the early 2030s before gradually declining. These two scenarios, with their widening divergence, have framed much of the global energy transition debate but have increasingly failed to reflect actual consumption trends.
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About the song
“Back to the Basics” was written by Lana Del Rey and was recorded and produced by Tim Anderson as a demo in 2011 and leaked to the internet in December 2012. The song is about two lovers trying to rekindle their past relationship by getting back to the basic things that drew them together in the first place. Del Rey has leaked a multitude of her demos and unreleased recordings to the internet. She will sometimes perform her unreleased material at concerts. Like other prolific songwriters, lyrics from earlier unreleased works may appear later in different forms in finished recordings. She has recorded demos under various aliases such as “May Jailer,” “Lizzy Grant” and “Sparkle Jump Rope Queen.” Personnel on the demo are: Lana Del Rey (vocals), Tim Anderson (production, mixing), and uncredited studio musicians (instrumentation).
Lana Del Rey (Elizabeth Woolridge Grant) is an American pop singer and songwriter. Her influences include Andrew Lloyd Webber, Nina Simone, Frank Sinatra, Julie London, Elvis Presley, Leonard Cohen and Lou Reed. After releasing her debut album, her first big professional break came with the success of her viral video, “Video Games.” She signed a record deal with Polydor and Interscope Records in 2011. She has released 10 studio albums, four EPs and 40 singles. She has won an ASCAP Pop Music Award, three BMI Pop Music Awards, two Brit Awards, three Ivor Novello Awards, and an MTV Video Music Award. Del Rey has directed many of her own music videos and has appeared in several independent films. She continues to record and tour, and will release her 11th studio album, Stove, in January 2026. Two singles, “Henry, Come On,” and “Bluebird,” have been released from the upcoming LP.
"About the Song" -- written by Mickey McMahan , RBN Director of Musicology
