Crossroads, Encore Edition - Record Global Gas Prices Signal More Room for North American LNG

It has been a chaotic 18 months for North American LNG and the global gas market. In a short time, international gas markets went from oppressively oversupplied balances, high storage inventories, and historically low prices for much of 2020, to reckoning with panic-inducing supply shortage, low inventories, multi-year or all-time high prices in the biggest LNG-consuming regions. The resulting whiplash has transformed key aspects of the LNG market, including making a profound impact on the way existing LNG terminals operate, how projects secure funding and capacity commitments, and what offtakers expect for the next generation of LNG capacity buildout. The tight market appears to have settled the question of whether more export capacity is needed, at least for now, but the market’s sharp U-turn has also put potential offtakers on edge and underscored the need for contractual flexibility. Additionally, pressure to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is higher than ever, and LNG offtakers are increasingly demanding greener solutions to address government regulations and public concerns. This convergence of factors has put the LNG market at a crossroads. Taking all of the lessons learned from the past 18 months and before, the industry must now forge a new path forward. Today, we discuss highlights from our new Drill Down report, looking at the major trends that will define the North American LNG market in the coming years.

Not long ago, the economics for U.S. LNG exports were practically a no-brainer. Despite the longer voyage times and the resulting higher shipping costs from Gulf Coast and East Coast ports to Europe and Asia — by far the biggest LNG consuming regions — LNG priced at the U.S.’s Henry Hub gas benchmark presented a competitive alternative to other global LNG supply, much of which is indexed to oil prices, which were higher then. But earlier this year, as oil prices collapsed, COVID-19 lockdowns decimated worldwide gas demand, and international gas prices plummeted, the decision to lift U.S. cargoes has become much more nuanced, and the commercial agreements to support the development of new liquefaction capacity are much harder — if not impossible — to come by. Today, we discuss highlights from RBN’s latest Drill Down Report on the impact of recent market events on U.S. export demand, capacity utilization, and new project development.

In observance of today’s holiday, we’ve given our writers a break and are revisiting a recently published blog on the U.S.’s shifting role in the global LNG market. If you didn’t read it then, this is your opportunity to see what you missed! Happy Labor Day!

New U.S. liquefaction trains and export terminals have added LNG to an oversupplied global market. International gas prices are at their lowest levels in several years, price spreads between the U.S. and destination markets have collapsed and — to make matters even worse — a coronavirus pandemic threatens to undermine LNG demand growth. U.S. LNG exports nevertheless have been increasing with each new liquefaction train that comes onstream, though, mostly because their long-term offtake contracts make cargo liftings relatively insensitive to global prices. The question is, will dire global market conditions somehow undo U.S. LNG production growth? Today, we discuss highlights from our new Drill Down Report on the future of U.S. LNG exports.