I Don't Know Where I'm Bound - Potential Recontracting Dilemma for Gas Supply-Push Pipelines

There was a lot of hand wringing and gnashing of teeth last week in energy markets, and it had nothing to do with the OPEC non-event.  Instead, the focus was Kinder Morgan (KMI), granddaddy of U.S. midstream companies, and usually a darling of analysts and media.  Not this time.   Over the past few days the stock has been hammered, Moody’s downgraded its debt, and a lot of folks in the market have been trying to figure out what is going on.   Particularly since all the hubbub would seem to be about a relatively minor investment (in energy infrastructure terms) in a pipeline called Natural Gas Pipeline of America, or NGPL, one of the oldest of the long-line systems in the U.S., which came online 84 years ago and Kinder Morgan has owned all (or part of) since 1999.  In today’s blog, we look at this pipeline system and what it tells us about the current state of the natural gas markets.

For much of the time since it began operations, the capacity on Tallgrass Energy’s Rockies Express Pipeline has been contracted and utilized at high rates for long-haul flows east from the Rockies to the Midwest. Specifically, the pipeline consistently has had between 1.3 and 1.8 Bcf/d out of a total 1.8 Bcf/d contracted, mostly for 10-year terms. That all changed in the past year, however, as the original long-term shipper contracts that took effect in 2009 came due and the pipeline experienced a major decontracting, with the bulk of the contracts rolling off in November 2019. Since then, a number of open seasons led to a partial recontracting. Tallgrass also is developing two projects — Cheyenne Connector and REX Cheyenne Hub Enhancement — that could increase flows to REX later this year. Today, we continue a series providing an update on eastbound pipeline contracts and gas flows on REX.

After a major decontracting and partial recontracting last fall, Tallgrass Energy’s Rockies Express Pipeline headed into 2020 with 839 MMcf/d in firm, long-haul commitments for natural gas moving east out of the Rockies for delivery into the Midwest. That volume is down from 1.3-1.8 MMcf/d in firm commitments previously. The contracted volume is also much lower than the peak — and even the average — historical gas flows on the route to the Midwest markets in recent years. At the same time, Tallgrass’s Cheyenne Connector pipeline and Cheyenne Hub Enhancement projects are expected to bring as much as 800 MMcf/d of new firm gas supply from the Denver-Julesburg (D-J) Basin to the REX mainline at Cheyenne Hub. What will these changes mean for Rockies’ eastbound flows and prices? Today, we wrap up our series on REX’s recontracting with an assessment of how the recent contract changes could affect REX gas flows.