The bulk of the second wave of U.S. LNG export projects will be situated along a small stretch of the Gulf Coast, from Port Arthur at the Texas-Louisiana border to the Mississippi River in southeastern Louisiana. Three of these projects — Golden Pass LNG, Port Arthur LNG and Plaquemines LNG — are under construction there and will add nearly 7 Bcf/d of new gas demand by 2028, and others could reach a final investment decision (FID) in the coming months or years. That’s prompted a frenzy of natural gas pipeline projects vying to serve this growing demand center, whether by moving incremental supply into the area or providing “last mile” delivery to the terminals. These pipeline expansions — and how well the incremental capacity, geography and timing align with liquefaction capacity additions — will drive the pace of overall gas demand growth and how the Lower 48 gas market will balance in the coming years. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss highlights from our new Drill Down Report detailing the slew of announced pipeline projects targeting LNG exports from the Port Arthur, TX/Louisiana region.
LNG exports will be the biggest driver of growth for natural gas demand in North America over the next five years. After a lull in export capacity additions in 2023, the next wave of liquefaction projects is expected to get underway in 2024, starting with the completion of Golden Pass LNG. Including Golden Pass, seven projects have reached FID and are under construction, while 28 others are in various stages of development and working toward the capacity and financial commitments to reach FID. While these projects span North America, importantly, the bulk of the new capacity is being planned or proposed for the U.S. Gulf Coast, and in particular, along a less-than-100-mile stretch of coastline in the northwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico, between the Beaumont/Port Arthur area near the Texas-Louisiana border and the Mississippi River in southeastern Louisiana.
At full utilization of contracted capacity, feedgas demand at already-operational terminals in the Port Arthur/Louisiana region totals ~8 Bcf/d (gray bar in Figure 1), including ~4.5 Bcf/d at Cheniere Energy’s Sabine Pass LNG, ~2 Bcf/d at Sempra Energy’s Cameron LNG, and ~1.5 Bcf/d at Venture Global’s Calcasieu Pass LNG, which has been loading “commissioning” cargoes since the first quarter of 2022 but has yet to be commercialized. In addition, of the seven FID projects under construction currently, three are sited in this area (pink bars): Golden Pass LNG in the Beaumont/Port Arthur area, which is due to begin service in 2024; and two recently sanctioned greenfield facilities: Venture Global’s Plaquemines LNG on the Mississippi River in southeastern Louisiana and Sempra Energy’s Port Arthur LNG, also in the Port Arthur area. Altogether, these three projects represent nearly 7 Bcf/d of incremental feedgas demand that is due to come online in the next five years, bringing total feedgas demand in the region to nearly 15 Bcf/d by 2028 (maroon bar). And, beyond these greenlit projects, there are still more expansions moving toward FID, including some in the near term.
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About the song
“50 Ways to Leave Your Lover” was written by Paul Simon and appears as the fourth song on side one of his fourth solo studio album, Still Crazy After All These Years. Released as the second single from the album in December 1975, it reached #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 Singles chart and has been certified Gold by the Recording Industry Association of America (RIAA). The song started out as a humorous way to document Simon’s divorce from his first wife, Peggy Harper. He wanted the song to be centered around the drum beat to “avoid clutter.” He recorded the song in Phil Ramone’s small demo studio above Manny’s music store in midtown Manhattan. Drummer Steve Gadd’s military ghost beats on the snare and prominent kick drum help set up the song’s groove beautifully. That beat has been sampled on many popular hip-hop records over the years. Personnel on the record were: Paul Simon (lead vocals, acoustic guitar), Steve Gadd (drums), Kenny Ascher (keyboards), John Tropea, Hugh McCracken (electric guitar), Tony Levin (bass), Ralph McDonald (percussion), and Patti Austin, Valerie Simpson, Phoebe Snow (backing vocals).
Still Crazy After All These Years was recorded in early 1975 at A&R Recording in New York City and produced by Paul Simon and Phil Ramone. Released in October 1975, the album reached #1 on the Billboard Top 200 Albums chart. It has been certified Gold by the RIAA. Four U.S. Top 40 singles were released from the LP.
Paul Simon is an American singer-songwriter with a career spanning six decades. He began performing with his school classmate Art Garfunkel in 1956 under the name Tom & Jerry. After changing the act’s name to Simon & Garfunkel, they came to prominence in the 1960s with their close harmonies and catchy folk-rock songs. After the Simon & Garfunkel mega-hit album Bridge Over Troubled Water in 1970, the pair broke up, each going on to successful solo careers. Paul Simon released five studio albums, four live albums, 13 compilation albums, one EP, and 26 singles as a member of Simon & Garfunkel. As a solo artist, he has released 15 studio albums, four live albums, 11 compilation albums, and 61 singles. He has won two Brit Awards, 16 Grammy Awards, is the recipient of a Gershwin Prize, Polar Music Prize, and has been inducted into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame twice, once as a member of Simon and Garfunkel, and once as a solo artist. Simon continues to write songs and record.
