The upstream oil and gas sector has been periodically roiled by dramatic price swings triggered by world events over the last five decades, including the 1970s oil embargo, the 1990-91 Gulf War, the late-1990s Asian financial crisis, the 2008 financial collapse, the onset of COVID in 2020, the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and now, the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran. The subsequent nearly $40/bbl surge in crude oil prices has taken attention away from the just-released year-end 2025 reports that showed U.S. E&P profits and cash flows have been steadily squeezed by the decline of realizations to a five-year low. In today’s RBN blog, we analyze the impact of bottoming oil prices on earnings and cash flows as the industry girds for an unpredictable 2026.
Canadian crude output is rising, requiring new export routes. As traditional pathways face constraints, the U.S. Rockies—especially the Guernsey, WY hub—are emerging as key corridors for moving Canadian heavy crude to downstream markets, including the Gulf Coast.
As shown in Figure 1 below, crude oil prices (gray line and right axis) rapidly gained momentum in late 2020 after plunging to just $16.55/bbl in April of that year, breaking the $50/bbl level in January 2021 and building to a peak above $100/bbl in March-July 2022. U.S. producers, which after decades of reckless spending transitioned to a model that prioritized free cash flow, basked in record returns that were passed along to shareholders. However, prices steadily retreated, lingering in the $70-$80/bbl range from 2023 through the first couple months of 2025 before declining more rapidly in the second half of the year. The average WTI price for December dipped to $57.85/bbl, the lowest since January 2021. (Prices have surged since the start of the war with Iran, settling at $98.23 on March 20.)
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About the song
“The Thunder Rolls” was written by Pat Alger and Garth Brooks. It appears as the fourth song on side one of Brooks’ second studio album, No Fences. The song was originally recorded by Tanya Tucker in 1988, but her version was not released until 1995 as part of a self-titled box set. Brooks’ version was released as a single in April 1991 and went to #13 on the Billboard Mainstream Rock and #26 on the Billboard Hot 100 Singles charts. It has been certified Gold by the Recording Industry Association of America (RIAA). The video for the song won the CMA Video of the Year award in October 1991. Personnel on the record were: Garth Brooks (vocals, acoustic guitar), Pat Alger (acoustic guitar, backing vocals), Bruce Bouton (pedal steel guitar), Mark Greenwood (bass), Mike Palmer (drums), James Garver (electric guitar), Steve Cox, David Grant (keyboards), and Rob Hajacos (fiddle).
No Fences was recorded at Jack’s Tracks in Nashville between 1989 and 1990 and produced by Allen Reynolds. The songs on the album featured Brooks’ “stadium country sound,” which has as much in common with the pop ethic of Journey as with the country musings of Merle Haggard. Released in August 1990, it rose to #1 on the Billboard Top Country Albums and #3 on the Billboard 200 Albums charts. It has been certified 18X Platinum by the RIAA. It remains Brooks’ best-selling album to date. Four singles were released from the LP.
Garth Brooks is an American country singer and songwriter from Oklahoma. He released his eponymous debut studio album in 1989 and it yielded four charting singles. He has released 16 studio albums, two live albums, four compilation albums, and 63 singles. He has sold over 170 million records worldwide. He is the only recording artist to have nine Diamond-certified albums by the RIAA. He has won 40 ACM Awards, 12 American Music Awards, three ASCAP Awards, 23 Billboard Music Awards, 17 CMA Awards, three Grammy Awards, and a World Music Award. He is a member of the Songwriters Hall of Fame, has received Kennedy Center Honors, and has a star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame. He still records and does select live performances. He will be appearing in June, headlining at Summerfest in Milwaukee and BST Hyde Park 2026 in London.
"About the Song" -- written by Mickey McMahan , RBN Director of Musicology
