No Sudden Movement – U.S. E&Ps Stay Cautious on 2026 Capex Amidst Market Volatility

The roiling of global energy markets by war in the Middle East has, at least temporarily, magnified the importance of domestic oil output and dramatically heightened interest in production trends. As lower prices continued to erode returns for oil producers in 2025 and into early 2026, it’s no surprise that E&Ps  accentuated a cautious, discipline-first approach in their initial 2026 capex and production guidance, which targets generally lower investment and flattens production growth. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll take a detailed look at the 2026 forecasts by peer group and offer some far-too-early speculation about the potential industry response to the recent surge in oil prices.

As shown in Figure 1 below, the 36 companies we follow have set 2026 capital investment of $59.1 billion (far-right blue bar and left axis), down 5% from $62.5 billion in 2025 and continuing a moderation from the recent peak in 2023. The commodity price collapse at the onset of the pandemic threatened the financial stability of a chronically overspending E&P industry that had lost the investment community's confidence. The response was drastic cuts to capital spending in 2020 and 2021, as producers strategically shifted their investment focus to maximizing shareholder returns over reserve and production growth (see Where Has All The Capex Gone?). Sustained high commodity prices allowed producers to increase drilling to offset steep shale decline rates, leading to substantial quarterly increases in investment and a total 2022 capex of $52.1 billion, up 58% over 2021 and the largest growth rate in over a decade. Inflation as well as increased organic capital outlays related to acquisition activity led to another 24% increase in 2023 investment to $64.5 billion, similar to amounts spent in pre-pandemic 2018. The restored investment over two years resulted in a 14% production gain.