The last few years have been filled with often-spirited debate about the global energy transition and the move away from fossil fuels to fully embrace renewables and alternatives to keep the lights on, fuel vehicles and power the world’s economy. But there are a growing number of signs that a swift shift from petroleum is not realistic, which has implications in many areas, including which refinery expansion projects move forward (and where), when oil demand might peak, and which of the many forecasts for gasoline and distillate production will prove to be the most accurate. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss highlights from the new Future of Fuels report by RBN’s Refined Fuels Analytics (RFA) practice, including RFA’s expectations for how a slower transition might affect producers, refiners and consumers.
Warning: Today’s blog is a blatant advertorial for RFA’s newly updated Future of Fuels report. Still, the blog — and the report — delve into topics that are highly relevant for a wide range of energy-industry participants and investors.
As we noted in February when we blogged about the previous edition of Future of Fuels (see We Just Disagree), there are glimmers that expectations are adjusting with realizations that energy use cannot realistically transition rapidly. That involves acknowledgement that gasoline, middle distillates (diesel and jet fuel), LPG, ethane and other hydrocarbons play critically important roles in improving the lives of billions of people in the developing world, and that shifting to non-hydrocarbon alternatives will take many years. We said at the time that plenty of folks needed to do even more rethinking and highlighted our contrarian take on the pace of refining capacity additions and product demand over the next few years.
The newly released fourth edition of Future of Fuels goes into extraordinary detail about how a slower approach to the energy transition is impacting markets. Here are some highlights from the report:
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About the song
“Slow Your Roll” was written by John Osborne, T.J. Osborne, Barry Dean and Troy Verges. It appears as the first song on Brothers Osborne’s second studio album, Port Saint Joe. The song features the Osborne brother’s clever lyrics and some tasty guitar licks from John Osborne. Remarkably, the song was never released as a single. Personnel on the record were: T.J. Osborne (lead vocal, acoustic guitar), John Osborne (lead guitar, mandolin, steel guitar, backing vocals), Pete Sternberg (bass), Adam Box (drums), Jay Joyce (keyboards, guitar, percussion, programming, backing vocals), and Jason Graumlich (backing vocals).
Port Saint Joe was recorded in Nashville and produced by Jay Joyce. Released in April 2018, it went to #2 on the Billboard Top Country and #150 on the Billboard 200 Albums charts. Two singles were released from the LP.
Brothers Osborne is an American country music duo featuring brothers T.J. and John Osborne. The brothers came from the fishing community of Deale, MD. They started playing music at a young age, playing in their father’s band, Deuces and a Quarter. They relocated to Tennessee when John Osborne started attending school at Belmont University in Nashville. For several years they performed in bars and music venues around the Nashville area. In 2011, they signed a publishing deal with Warner-Chappell. After signing a record deal with EMI Nashville, they released their first single in 2013. They released an EP in 2014, and their third single, “Stay a Little Longer,” went to #5 on the Billboard Hot Country Singles chart. They have released four studio albums, one live album, two EPs, and 12 singles. They have won six ACM Awards, five CMA Awards, and a Grammy Award for Best Country Duo/Group Performance. They continue to record and tour. They released their latest EP, Break Mine, in digital format in 2024. They are currently on tour in the U.S. and will be touring the UK and Ireland in January 2025.
