Yesterday’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report from the Energy Information Administration included an eye-popping statistic: 5 million barrels a day of crude oil were exported from the U.S. in the week ended August 12. It’s the highest U.S. export volume ever reported — and by a margin of nearly half a million barrels a day! But as huge as that top-line number is, and as many headlines as it’s sure to grab, it's not unexpected. Major changes in international crude markets, coupled with tectonic shifts in North American upstream and midstream, have conspired to push U.S. exports higher and higher. In today’s RBN blog, we examine the factors leading up to this point and what it means for crude markets in the U.S. and abroad.
We’ll start by tempering the news somewhat. As significant as 5 MMb/d is, it's important to note that the prior week’s reported exports were an underwhelming 2.1 MMb/d. As shown by the blue line in Figure 1, below, the crude oil export figures reported by the EIA tend to bounce around a lot from week to week — some weeks Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) and other vessels might be counted just before or after the weekly cutoff time. An additional variable that ought to be considered when looking at the weekly figures is what the EIA calls “unaccounted for” crude volumes in their weekly statistics that balance out the difference between supply, demand and inventory change (see One Piece At A Time for how that math works). So looking at a four-week moving average (green line) gives a much clearer sense of how exports have been trending — so far this summer they've averaged around 3.4 MMb/d, their highest level since just before COVID hit in early 2020.
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About the song
“Change the World” was written by Tommy Sims, Gordon Kennedy and Wayne Kirkpatrick. It was originally recorded by Wynonna Judd and a cover version was recorded by Eric Clapton for the soundtrack of the 1996 film Phenomenon. The track was produced by R&B record producer Kenneth Edmonds (a.k.a. Babyface). Clapton’s version of the song has been featured on over 20 releases, including extended plays and various artists compilation albums, and reached the Top 40 charts in 20 countries, including #1 on the U.S. Billboard Adult Contemporary and Adult Top 40 charts. The single won eight awards, including three Grammy Awards in 1997.
The Phenomenon soundtrack features various artists who contributed to the music score of the 1996 American romantic fantasy drama film starring John Travolta. In addition to Eric Clapton, the soundtrack features performances by Bryan Ferry, Jewel, Marvin Gaye and Peter Gabriel. The album topped the Billboard 200 Albums chart and sold more than 1.5 million copies. It was certified Platinum by the Recording Industry Association of America. “Everyday Is A Winding Road,” from Sheryl Crow’s 1996 self-titled album, was featured in the film, but was not on the soundtrack.
Eric Clapton is an English rock and blues guitarist, singer, and songwriter. He is regarded as one of the most successful and influential guitarists in rock music. Clapton is ranked #2 in Rolling Stone’s “100 Greatest Guitarists of All Time,” #4 in Gibson’s “Top 50 Guitarists of All Time,” and #5 in Time magazine's list of “The 10 Best Electric Guitar Players.” He continues to record and tour.
