After several years of aggressive balance-sheet repair, U.S. E&Ps are entering a new phase — one defined not by constraint, but by opportunity. A surge in oil prices tied to the Iran conflict and a sharp rise in natural gas prices driven by an unusually cold winter have combined to generate a fresh wave of excess cash flow across the sector. Oil markets have been pushed higher by supply disruptions and geopolitical tensions, while natural gas prices have strengthened on weather-driven demand, reinforcing a powerful near-term earnings tailwind. The question posed in today’s RBN blog is a familiar one: What will companies do with these additional cash flows?
The 35 E&Ps that we monitor held total debt essentially flat at just under $150 billion (blue bars and left axis in Figure 1 below) in 2025, while their collective debt-to-capital ratio (orange line and right axis) declined by 1 percentage point to 24%. Debt trended steadily lower from its 2019 peak through 2022 as companies shifted toward a cash-return model that prioritized free cash flow over reinvestment, enabling meaningful debt reduction alongside increased dividends and share repurchases. Debt moved sharply higher in 2024, driven by a surge in M&A activity (see Try Some, Buy Some), with our universe of E&Ps completing nearly $120 billion of asset and corporate transactions. Despite the increase in total debt, the debt-to-capital ratio remained stable, as companies funded acquisitions with a mix of debt and equity to preserve target leverage levels. In 2025, debt levels held steady, while the debt-to-capital ratio declined to 24%, supported by an expanding capital base.
Figure 1. E&P Debt Metrics, 2014-25.
Source: Oil & Gas Financial Analytics LLC
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About the song
“Take the Money and Run” was written by Steve Miller and appears as the first song on side two of the Steve Miller Band’s ninth studio album, Fly Like an Eagle. The song is about two young bandits on the run and the detective who is chasing them. Only Steve Miller could get away with rhyming “El Paso” with “great big hassle.” Your director of musicality remembers the exact moment I first heard this song and the Fly Like an Eagle album. I was in an Austin nightclub with my girlfriend on a warm spring night in 1976, and they played this between the band’s sets. Feel-good music on a fun evening when all was right in the world. Released as a single in April 1976, it went to #11 on the Billboard Hot 100 Singles chart and has been certified 2X Platinum by the Recording Industry Association of America. Personnel on the record were: Steve Miller (vocals, guitar), Lonnie Turner (bass), and Gary Mallaber (drums, percussion).
Fly Like an Eagle was recorded at CBS Studios in San Francisco during 1975 and 1976, and produced by Steve Miller. Another side note is that “Rock’n Me,” from this album, was a featured song in the set list of 1970s Tulsa cover band Paradise (which included RBN’s Rusty Braziel and Mickey McMahan). The album was released in May 1976 and went to #3 on the Billboard 200 Albums chart, and has been certified 4X Platinum by the RIAA. Four singles were released from the LP.
Steve Miller is an American rock singer, songwriter and guitarist. His roots go deep with associations with artists such as Les Paul (his godfather), T-Bone Walker, Muddy Waters and Howlin' Wolf, before anyone had ever heard of Steve Miller. After backing Chuck Berry on his Live at Fillmore Auditorium album in 1966, Miller released his first studio album, Children of the Future, in 1968. He has released 18 studio albums, six live albums, 11 compilation albums and 30 singles. He has sold more than 40 million records worldwide. He was inducted into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame in 2016 and the Songwriters Hall of Fame in 2022. His last release was the studio LP, Let Your Hair Down, in April 2011.
"About the Song" -- written by Mickey McMahan , RBN Director of Musicology
