The Lower 48 natural gas market has had the most bearish start to a new year in a long time. Production has been at record highs, an exceptionally warm start to January suppressed demand, and LNG exports have been hobbled since last June when Freeport LNG went offline. The CME/NYMEX Henry Hub February gas futures contract slid to an 18-month low of $2.94/MMBtu last Thursday and expired Friday at $3.109/MMBtu, down 54% from where the prompt contract closed just two months earlier. The March contract extended the slide Monday to a 20-month low of $2.677/MMBtu. Freeport’s eventual return will restore existing export capacity, but there’s no new LNG export capacity due online this year — for the first time since 2016. After one of the tightest gas markets of the last decade in 2022, the stage is set for one of the most oversupplied markets we’ve seen in years. But the bulls out there can take solace: 2023 will also mark the final throes of the kind of oversupply conditions that defined the Shale Era as we know it. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss how we got here and RBN’s outlook for natural gas supply and demand.
If you’re suffering from a bit of whiplash from the gas market, you’re probably not alone. How did we go from almost $10/MMBtu gas and one of the tightest, most volatile markets in over a decade to sub-$3/MMBtu gas and one of the most bearish scenarios we’ve seen in a long time — all in the span of just over six months? Undoubtedly, the gas market has become increasingly volatile and notoriously hypersensitive to weather anomalies and market disruptions in recent years, and there was no shortage of that in 2022.
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About the song
“The Final Countdown” was written by Europe lead singer Joey Tempest. It appears as the first song on side one of Europe’s third studio album entitled The Final Countdown. Released as a single in February 1986, the song went to #8 on the Billboard Hot 100 Singles chart. Songwriter Tempest said the lyrics were inspired by David Bowie’s “Space Oddity.” The polyphonic synthesizer riff on the song is reminiscent of the intro to Bill Conti’s Rocky theme song, “Gonna Fly Now.” Both songs are popular at sporting events. “The Final Countdown” synthesizer riff was played on a Roland JX-8P synthesizer by Mic Michaeli. Personnel on the record were: Joey Tempest (lead vocals), John Norum (guitars, backing vocals), John Leven (bass), Mic Michaeli (keyboards, backing vocals), and Ian Haugland (drums, backing vocals).
The album, The Final Countdown, was produced by Kevin Elson, and recorded between September 1985 and March 1986 at Powerplay Studios in Zurich, Soundtrade Studios in Stockholm, Master Sound Studios in Atlanta, GA, and Fantasy Studios in Berkeley, CA. Released in May 1986, the album went to #8 on the Billboard Top 200 Albums chart and has been certified 3x Platinum by the Recording Industry Association of America. Five singles were released from the LP.
Europe is a Swedish rock band formed in Upplands Väsby, Sweden, in 1979 by vocalist Joey Tempest, guitarist John Norum, bassist Peter Olsson and drummer Tony Reno. They made their professional breakthrough in Sweden in 1982 by winning the television talent show, Rock-SM. They rose to international fame in 1986 with their hit album, The Final Countdown. The group has sold over 10 million records worldwide. The band took a hiatus in 1992, with members Tempest, Norum and Kee Marcell releasing solo albums before regrouping and continuing in 2003. They have released 11 studio albums, eight live albums, five compilation albums, one EP and 35 singles. They were inducted into the Swedish Music Hall of Fame in 2018. Nine members have passed through the group since its formation. Europe still records and tours.
