It took longer than we thought it would take but U.S. propane production finally broke the September 2022 all-time record high according to the most recent monthly data released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). As shown on the charts below, propane gas plant production for May 2023 was 1,979 thousand barrels per day (Mb/d) which was 22 Mb/d higher than April and 19 Mb/d above the prior record level. PADD 2 (Midwest) also set a new record high with production rising to 408 Mb/d, which was 7 Mb/d higher than the prior all-time high.
Featured Articles
- Blog
Bill and Todd's Excellent Propane Adventure - Where the Market Stands as Heating Season Looms
It may be hard to believe, given the furnace-like temperatures that many of us have been dealing with the past few weeks, but the 2023-24 propane heating season is on the horizon — its official start is October 1, only seven weeks away. To quote Bill and Ted from their Excellent Adventure movie franchise, it could be argued that, for the U.S. propane market, “The best place to be is here. The best time to be is now.” Production is at or near an all-time high — so are exports. Propane inventories are well above their five-year average, which should help ward off winter-supply concerns. And propane prices? They’re up from where they were a few weeks ago, but only in the 70-cents/gal range, well below the $1/gal-plus levels that were the norm between Q3 2021 and Q3 2022. The temptation may be to yell, “Party on, dudes!”, but as we discuss in today’s RBN blog, the reality is, the propane market is an ongoing and unpredictable adventure, and you never know for sure what’s ahead.
- Analyst Insight
U.S. Propane Production Soars to Another Record High
U.S. propane production rocketed to an all-time high for the second month in a row. Propane gas plant production for June 2023, as reported by the EIA on August 31, increased by 75 Mb/d to 2,054 Mb/d, which was 191 Mb/d, or 10.3%, above what was recorded in June 2022.
- Blog
Skyrockets in Flight - Propane Headed Toward Uncharted Territory
Fourth of July skyrockets were not the only fireworks earlier this week. The price of propane skyrocketed up to 112 c/gal before the holiday weekend and held at that level through Tuesday, an increase of about 21 c/gal or 23% over the past month alone. To put that in perspective, that’s the highest price for propane since April 2014, back when crude oil was over $100/bbl. Although propane came off a few cents on Wednesday in sympathy with falling crude prices, both Mont Belvieu and Conway propane prices are still almost 135% higher than this time last year. Assuming crude prices don’t fall off a cliff, how high could propane prices go? Hard to say. The propane market is experiencing unusually low inventories, relatively modest production growth, near record-high export volumes, and unconstrained dock capacity. Consequently, if we continue to see strong demand, but U.S. producers stay focused on capital discipline, thus constraining production, propane prices could be headed considerably higher this winter. Today, we continue our series of deep dives into the U.S. propane market and, in a blatant advertorial, describe how you can keep up with this rapidly moving market with RBN’s new Propane Billboard report and dataset.
