Zero re-exports of Canadian heavy crude oil from the Gulf Coast were recorded for October 2024 (black text and arrow in chart below), a pullback from a modest 84 Mb/d in September and a collapse from the record of 378 Mb/d one year ago, based on data published by the U.S. Census Bureau. This is the first zero reading for Canadian heavy crude oil re-exports since September 2020, just over four years ago. Based on preliminary data compiled by Bloomberg (pink text, arrow and dashed column), re-exports of Canadian heavy crude oil appear to have rebounded to 100 Mb/d in November, but this awaits confirmation from Census Bureau data in early January. The zero reading of October joins what has been an uneven downward trend for these re-exports since the midpoint of this year.
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Back from the Brink - Gulf Coast Re-Exports of Canadian Heavy Crude Oil Return to Life in November
Both Sides Now - Has the Trans Mountain Expansion Shifted Western Canada’s Crude Oil Exports?
After a decade-long odyssey and a cost-per-mile that must make public-sector accountants in Ottawa wince, the Canadian government-owned Trans Mountain Expansion Project (TMX) — which nearly tripled the capacity of the original Trans Mountain Pipeline (TMP) from Alberta to the British Columbia (BC) coast — finally came into service in May 2024. As one of Canada’s most anticipated energy infrastructure projects in many years, the 590-Mb/d TMX pipeline — built alongside the long-standing 300-Mb/d TMP — was widely touted by its advocates as a surefire way to boost exports of Western Canadian crude and reduce the nation’s near-complete reliance on exporting crude oil to — and through — its primary customer, the U.S. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss some of the surprising (and not so surprising) market developments since the expansion project started.
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The US census bureau data is pending revision for both Sept and Oct 2024 data on both PADD 2 exports to Canada and WCS USGC re-exports. This is due to CBSA implementing their new CARM system on filing shipments.