Report: China to Waive Ethane Tariffs

Starting on April 10, China will enact an 84% reciprocal tariff on imports of U.S. goods. This increase was in response to the 104% tariff that the U.S. placed on imports of Chinese goods, which was subsequently raised to 125% by President Trump on April 9. China is likely to retaliate further. Unlike China’s February retaliatory tariffs of 10%-15% on U.S. oil and LNG, this time NGLs and all energy products are included. These higher tariffs have the potential to destroy propane and ethane exports from the U.S. In today’s RBN blog, we look at the potential impact of China’s reciprocal tariffs on the propane and ethane markets.

After dodging the huge tariffs on exports of U.S. LPG and ethane to China — at least until August 12 — a new wrinkle has emerged. Enterprise Products Partners said in a filing May 29 that the U.S. Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) has flagged its exports of butane and ethane to China as a security risk; specifically, that they pose an “unacceptable risk of use in or diversion to a military end use.” Details about the licenses and how they will apply are limited at this point, but it appears they will be required for these exports to continue. In today’s RBN blog, we examine the potential impact on the ethane and butane markets. 

Starting at the end of 2015 six new North American propane dehydrogenation (PDH) plants are expected to come online. These new plants will have the capacity to convert up to 170 Mb/d of propane into much more valuable propylene. If all the plants are built, these new supplies of propylene should more than replace declining output from olefin crackers and refineries. These on-purpose PDH plants should also make propylene supply more directly responsive to feedstock prices. Today we describe how PDH plants are likely to impact the propane market.