Refinery runs climbed 365 Mb/d to 16.6 MMb/d last week (see Figure 1), roughly 850 Mb/d above year ago levels, as refiners responded to exceptionally strong margins created by surging product prices. The 3-2-1 crack spread increased sharply by $15.59/bbl week over week, reaching $55.78 per barrel on Friday, March 20 (see Figure 2). The move was primarily driven by strength in distillates, with diesel cracks surging to $87.02/bbl, while gasoline cracks also improved to $40.16/bbl. This strength was supported by wholesale gasoline and diesel prices climbing to their highest levels since 2022. At the same time, global crude fundamentals remained supportive, with Brent settling at $112.19/bbl, the Brent WTI spread widening to $13.96/bbl, and the Midland MEH differential reaching $3.36/bbl amid ongoing Persian Gulf disruptions and fears of tighter global crude flows.
Featured Articles
- Analyst Insight
International Brent versus Domestic WTI Crude Oil Price Differential Blowout
The price differential between Brent and WTI has widened sharply in the past few days, reaching levels not seen in over a decade as the Iran war has created a growing gap between international seaborne and domestic inland crude markets.
- Analyst Insight
Geopolitical Risk Premium Drives Surge in Crude Prices To Above $90/bbl
The start of March brought extraordinary volatility to crude markets. Multiple global benchmarks and regional grades posted sharp gains, with several trading at or near recent highs.
- Blog
Double-Edged Sword – Refinery ‘Capacity Creep,’ Falling Inventories May Limit U.S. Crude Export Surge
U.S. crude oil production averaged a record 13.6 MMb/d in 2025, up nearly 1.6 MMb/d from 2023, but crude export volumes remained remarkably stable — at or very near 4.1 MMb/d — until a recent Iran-related surge. A key reason: “capacity creep” expansion projects at several Gulf Coast refineries.
