TC Energy raised its 10-year North American natural gas demand growth forecast by 11 Bcf/d, increased its backlog of pending and potential projects significantly, and reported higher year-over year natural gas pipeline volumes in both the U.S. and Canada, according to its second quarter results press release and conference call held on July 30.
The company is now expecting North American natural gas demand to grow by 51 Bcf/d from 2025 to 2035, up from its prior estimate of 40 Bcf/d. More than half of the 11 Bcf/d increase is from power generation, which TC Energy now expects to provide 16 Bcf/d of growth. Stronger growth in LNG exports was the other major driver of the higher growth forecast (see chart below). TC Energy expects demand in Canada to grow by 8-10 Bcf/d by 2035.
The company's inventory of pending growth projects (projects nearing sanctioning) is now CAD$7 billion, up CAD$1 billion from three months ago, while its pipeline of additional potential growth projects is now CAD$20+ billion, split roughly two-to-one between the U.S. and Canada, compared to over CAD$15 billion three months ago.
In the second quarter, TC Energy approved three natural gas pipeline capacity expansion projects: the Central Virginia Capacity project on the Columbia gas system (up to 0.4 Bcf/d for new gas-fired power generation supporting data centers, in-service dates 2028 and 2030), the Clark project on the Columbia Gulf system (up to 0.3 Bcf/d for an existing power plant, in-service in 2028), and various expansion projects on the NGTL system in Canada with 2028 in-service dates.
The Canadian Energy Regulator recently approved a four-year negotiated settlement for TC Energy’s Canadian Mainline beginning in 2027, which is expected to see TC Energy add 350 MMcf/d of capacity between 2027 and 2032. TC Energy also announced an open season for new capacity at the Mainline’s starting point at Empress.
Operationally, in the second quarter TC Energy’s Canadian natural gas pipeline deliveries grew by 1% year-over-year, while its U.S. natural gas average flows were up 5% year-over-year.
Source: TC Energy
