Northeast gas demand moved upward during the week ended July 15 relative to the prior week, driven by strong power demand as weather in the region was significantly hotter than the 5-year average. Overall Northeast demand averaged 19.1 Bcf/d, up 0.8 Bcf/d week-on-week. Power demand was 0.5 Bcf/d higher than the prior week, while Res/Comm and Industrial demand each grew by 0.1 Bcf/d. LNG feedgas to Cove Point was 0.8 Bcf/d, similar to last week. Net outflows to other regions fell by 0.6 Bcf/d to 14.7 Bcf/d week-on-week.
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Turn the Page - Producer Restraint, Tighter Balances Disrupt Appalachian Gas Market Trends
Before the bullish winter of 2021-22, it appeared the Northeast natural gas market was headed for familiar territory: worsening seasonal takeaway constraints and deeper, constraint-driven price discounts starting as early as this spring. Instead, the market went in the other direction the past few months. Takeaway utilization out of Appalachia has been lower year-on-year and, for the most part, Appalachian supply basin prices have followed Henry Hub higher even as that benchmark rocketed to 14-year highs. That’s not to say that constraints out of the Northeast aren’t on the horizon. But the market is now poised to escape the worst of it this year, despite the completion of the last major takeaway pipeline project in the region, Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP), being pushed out another year or longer, if it crosses the finish line at all. In today’s RBN blog, we provide an update on regional fundamentals and what recent trends mean for gas production growth and pricing in the region.