While not quite at full strength, U.S. LNG feedgas intake and cargo output have been strong this winter following increased activity at the three Louisiana terminals — Sabine Pass, Calcasieu Pass and Cameron. U.S. feedgas has averaged 13.69 Bcf/d since the beginning of November, 1.86 Bcf/d above last winter’s intake. The primary driver of the increased feedgas demand this winter is Freeport LNG, which was offline for most of last winter following an explosion at the terminal in June 2022. Freeport has had some operational issues this winter — one train sustained damage during the mid-January freeze and has been offline since — but intake at the terminal has averaged 1.65 Bcf/d since the beginning of November. Freeport did not take any feedgas until February last winter. An additional 400 MMcf/d of feedgas demand this winter has come from the Louisiana LNG terminals, all of which have produced above typical or expected full-utilization levels. Those same dynamics were reflected in cargo activity. The U.S. has exported nearly 460 cargoes this winter, 76 more than last winter. The majority of that increase, 62 cargoes, was from Freeport’s return to service, but combined, the Louisiana terminals have exported 15 more cargoes than they did last winter.
Featured Articles
Dizzy - U.S. LNG Feedgas Volumes Swing Wildly Ahead of Peak Winter Demand
Total U.S. LNG export capacity is around 12 Bcf/d, including the still-commissioning-but-nearly-complete Calcasieu Pass. About 13.5 Bcf/d of U.S. natural gas supplies, or feedgas, is required to produce that much LNG, but feedgas demand has averaged just 10.5 Bcf/d over the past week despite still-soaring global gas prices and an undersupplied global LNG market. Two U.S. terminals are currently offline: Freeport LNG, which has been out of service since an explosion and fire in June, and now Cove Point LNG, which shut for annual maintenance October 1. Beyond those outages, which have taken about 2.75 Bcf/d of demand out of commission, LNG feedgas volumes have been extremely volatile, swinging as much as 2 Bcf/d within a week. Don’t expect this to last, however — with winter approaching, the return of both Freeport and Cove Point on the horizon, and the full startup of Calcasieu Pass in sight, feedgas demand will likely rise to new heights and soon consistently top 13 Bcf/d. In today’s RBN blog we take a closer look at the recent volatility in LNG feedgas and the potential demand coming this winter.
Feed Me - U.S. LNG Feedgas Demand Has Additional Upside Beyond New Capacity
LNG feedgas demand has averaged a record of about 12 Bcf/d this summer and fall. While that may sound like an impressive number (and it is), it could increase significantly — even without new capacity additions — over the next few months as seasonal demand rises and maintenance activity slows. And that’s just for starters. Next year, the first of several planned LNG export terminals and expansions of existing ones will start commissioning, and by the end of this decade feedgas demand may well double. In today’s RBN blog, we look at how current LNG feedgas demand stacks up compared to past years, the factors driving current demand, and the potential for additional upside.
Shut Down - Gas Flow, Price Impacts of the Freeport LNG Outage
An explosion June 8 at Freeport LNG, the 15.3 MMtpa (2 Bcf/d) export terminal on Quintana Island, TX, has knocked it offline at a time when the global market is already facing tight conditions because of the war in Ukraine and other factors. The explosion, fire and subsequent shutdown — which fortunately did not include any injuries — sent U.S. natural gas tumbling off recent highs and shot global gas prices higher. Much is still unknown about the developing situation, including exactly how long the outage will last. While Freeport has said it expects the terminal to be offline for at least three weeks, multiple regulatory agencies have investigations underway and will likely need to approve a return to service. In today’s RBN blog, we look at the latest news from Freeport LNG and run through the potential market implications, starting with impacts to the U.S. gas market.
