Canadian Propane Stocks Seasonally Fall in January, Butane Stocks Still Getting Tighter

Data reported by the Canada Energy Regulator (CER) for Western Canada’s propane inventories (left hand chart in top figure below) were reported to be 4.76 MMb, a well below average drop of 0.87 MMb versus December, but are 0.91 MMb (+24%) above the five-year average. Those in Eastern Canada (right hand chart) came in at 2.09 MMb, with a seasonally average decrease of 1.17 MMb versus December and are now 0.72 MMb (-26%) below the five-year average. Propane stocks in eastern Canada have been on a steady downward track versus its five-year average since October 2023, despite temperatures across the region having been well above average for most of the winter to date. Note that with respect to propane stocks in Western Canada, a sizeable portion of the region’s propane production is railed for export to terminals in British Columbia and Washington state or to the Midwest and can be less influenced by warm weather anomalies in terms of inventory changes.