Canadian Propane Stocks Comfortable, Butane Stocks Remain Tight

Data reported by the Canada Energy Regulator (CER) for Western Canada’s propane inventories at the end of February (left hand chart in top figure below) were pegged at 3.53 MMb, with a seasonal average drop of 1.23 MMb versus January and stand 0.89 MMb (+24%) above the five-year average. Those in Eastern Canada (right hand chart) came in at 1.36 MMb, with a seasonally less than average decrease of 0.73 MMb versus January and are now 0.47 MMb (-26%) below the five-year average. With propane in eastern Canada more tied to space heating needs, the less than average inventory drawdown was due to the region experiencing its third warmest February since 1900. However, stocks have remained consistently below the five-year average since October 2023, despite temperatures across the region having been well above average for most of the winter-to-date. Note that with respect to propane stocks in Western Canada, a sizeable portion of the region’s propane production is railed for export to terminals in British Columbia and Washington state or to the Midwest and can be less influenced by warm weather anomalies in terms of inventory changes.