Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNRL), subsequent to its Q3 2025 earnings report on November 6, announced a series of oil sands production initiatives as part of its Investor Open House on November 7. If all projects are pursued as currently planned, the company has the potential to increase its output of non-upgraded bitumen in the range of 340 Mb/d by 2032. Front End Engineering and Design (FEED) will begin in 2026 for the expansion of four oil sands projects.
- Jackfish: an expansion of the existing Jackfish Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD) production site that would undertake three increments of 10 Mb/d each to push capacity from 120 Mb/d to 150 Mb/d with an in-service date of 2030.
- Pike 2: a new SAGD facility contemplated south of the existing Pike 1 site with incremental production of 70 Mb/d and planned for in-service by 2031.
- Jackpine Mine Expansion: an incremental 150 Mb/d from an expansion of the existing Jackpine Mine which will require an additional processing plant and targeting start up by 2031. Output would be sold to the market as diluted bitumen and not upgraded as is the case for current production sent to the Scotford Upgrader.
- Horizon North Mine Expansion: an additional 90 Mb/d from the existing Horizon North Mine that will require new regulatory approvals with a potential start date of 2032.
The company gave no specific timeline for the completion of the projects, stating that the Jackfish and Pike 2 projects are “medium term” priorities, while Jackpine and Horizon are “long term” opportunities. This latest set of announcements tie in with RBN’s assessment that output of oil sands bitumen from all operators could expand by as much as 500 Mb/d by 2030.
