After a period of relative quiet, Houthi rebels tested the capabilities of the coalition of ships known as Operation Prosperity Guardian, launching 18 drones, cruise and anti-ship missiles at targets in the straits of Bab El-Mandeb. All 18 were intercepted by ships and aircraft of the task force, and no damage was reported. While container traffic has been significantly impacted, with major shippers like Maersk avoiding the area altogether, oil shipping has been less impacted. Vessel tracking data shows about a 25% decrease in oil-related tankers transiting the straits, though it must be noted that only about 10% of seaborne oil movements pass through them. Mysteriously, transits via the Cape of Good Hope do not appear to show a corresponding increase, leaving us to wonder where the traffic has gone. The market seems to be taking all of this in stride, however, as you can see from the chart below. Brent actually fell after the attack, seemingly indicating the markets have confidence that this geopolitical side show's impacts will remain contained.
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