Alberta crude oil and condensate production for April was little changed from March, declining by only 22 Mb/d to average 4.492 MMb/d, and was up 162 Mb/d year-over-year, according to monthly data released by the Alberta Energy Regulator (AER) on May 29. April production avoided the large drop typically seen in April attributable to oil sands facility maintenance work (see chart below), with upgraded oil sands production volumes actually increasing by 79 Mb/d month-over-month. Year-to-date Alberta production through April was up 90 Mb/d year-over-year.
In our view, there were two factors driving the lack of a material production drop in April:
- March crude oil production was negatively impacted by interruptions to natural gas supplies to many of the oil sands projects.
- Typically volumes from either or both the 262-Mb/d capacity Horizon and the 328-Mb/d capacity Scotford upgraders are lower in April due to scheduled maintenance downtime, but neither of those projects had significant maintenance downtime planned for the first half of this year.
