ZEV

Expectations for electric vehicle (EV) adoption in the U.S. took a sharp detour into uncharted territory earlier this month when President Trump signed the landmark budget reconciliation bill into law. Known as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), the law dramatically scales back EV subsidies, eliminates penalties for automakers that don’t meet fuel-efficiency standards, and significantly restricts state-level zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) programs. In today’s RBN blog, we look at why the law is likely to slow the pace of EV adoption and impact forecasts for vehicle sales and gasoline demand — a key topic in the just-published Future of Fuels report from our Refined Fuels Analytics (RFA) practice.

There’s been a lot of speculation about whether the pace of electric vehicle (EV) adoption has slowed, with JD Power now expecting EVs to make up 9% of U.S. new-car sales in 2024, down from its earlier estimate of 12.4% but still up from 7% in 2023. The group remains bullish on EVs in the long term, expecting market share to reach 36% by 2030 and 58% by 2035. The forecast from RBN’s Refined Fuels Analytics (RFA) group forecast has been — and continues to be — more conservative than most but still anticipates EVs will reach 50% of U.S. new-car sales by the early 2040s. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll look at what drives these forecasts and the anticipated impacts on gasoline demand. 

There’s been a lot of speculation about whether the pace of electric vehicle (EV) adoption has slowed, with JD Power now expecting EVs to make up 9% of U.S. new-car sales in 2024, down from its earlier estimate of 12.4% but still up from 7% in 2023. The group remains bullish on EVs in the long term, expecting market share to reach 36% by 2030 and 58% by 2035. The forecast from RBN’s Refined Fuels Analytics (RFA) group forecast has been — and continues to be — more conservative than most but still anticipates EVs will reach 50% of U.S. new-car sales by the early 2040s. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll look at what drives these forecasts and the anticipated impacts on gasoline demand.