Whistler

Some things you can pretty much count on this time of year, like the end of 100-degree days in Houston, Aggies rooting against Longhorns, and the Astros in the World Series. Permian natural gas production has also been consistently higher the last few years. It’s usually on its way to new highs as we approach the holidays and 2021 is another fine example. After a bang-up 2020, this year has been one of continuously solid gas production growth in the Permian, with gas volumes currently sitting near 14 Bcf/d, up around 1.5 Bcf/d versus this time last year. What’s more, at today’s crude oil prices, which encourage increasing production of oil and associated gas, there is no end in sight for Permian gas growth. Which means, as many gas traders already know, that the Permian’s primary gas market, the Waha Hub, may soon be headed back into the familiar territory of deep basis discounts. In today’s RBN blog, we look at the latest developments in Permian gas markets.

It’s not often these days that you read about gas markets in the San Juan Basin. In fact, the subject was probably never much of a hot topic because the San Juan has been something of an afterthought when it comes to Western gas markets, just a stop on the road between the Permian and markets along the West Coast and in the Rockies. However, those Western gas markets are setting up to be quite interesting this summer, as is the Waha gas market in the Permian, and understanding the mechanics of the San Juan is just one piece of the overall Western puzzle. In today’s blog, we take a look at the far-flung but increasingly interesting markets west of the Permian Basin.

A lot of people know that Permian natural gas prices have spent many days in negative territory over the last few years, only to skyrocket over $100/MMBtu during the Deep Freeze in February. Those events were mostly viewed as transitory, driven by a chronic lack of pipeline capacity in the former case and a crazy round of arctic weather in the latter. It may come as a surprise to hear that forward basis prices for natural gas in the Permian are trading at a premium to Henry Hub for at least some months over the next year or so. How could it be that gas from a supply basin way out in West Texas, where gas is considered a byproduct, trades at a premium? The answer lies in the key infrastructure changes expected in the weeks ahead and a premium in forward basis for the Houston Ship Channel gas market. How long the Texas premiums will last depends on Permian gas production, which is starting to take off again. Today, we aim to explain the latest developments in Permian and Texas natural gas markets.

Permian natural gas markets have never been more interesting, if you ask us. Sure, there are no negative prices at the Waha hub these days, and the triple-digit prices produced by Winter Storm Uri are starting to fade in the rear view. But there’s plenty of action ahead for Permian gas this year and next. For starters, sometime in the next few weeks the 2.0-Bcf/d Whistler Pipeline is scheduled to begin moving natural gas from the Permian to South Texas, further enhancing takeaway options for the basin’s continually growing supply of gas. That’s good news, considering Permian gas production is at record highs and set to grow to over 14 Bcf/d by the end of 2022. Speaking of records, gas exports from the Waha Hub to Mexico have never been higher and should increase further this summer, as power demand increases and a new pipeline across the border is expected to come online. Topping all that off is the recent news that the Permian will soon see a major gas storage facility start up right in the middle of the Waha hub. The latter is the focus of today’s blog, in which we detail the latest addition to the Permian gas infrastructure puzzle.

If you are looking for a way to focus on 2021 without reflecting on the last 12 months, we might have a deal for you. That’s because Permian natural gas and oil production is starting off this year at levels very close to where they finished 2019. That’s right: as far as the Permian is concerned, you can almost skip entirely over 2020 and pick up right where we left off the prior year. Well, for the most part. Oil prices are lower, rig counts have been reduced, and industry consolidation has removed some of the familiar Permian names from the stock ticker. In general, the atmosphere out in West Texas has calmed down dramatically from the headiest days of Permian growth and it’s safe to say it’s easier to grab lunch in Midland these days. Does that mean things in the basin aren’t still interesting out there? If you ask us, the answer is a resounding “No!” For starters, growth is back in the basin, even if it is at a slower pace than in 2019, and natural gas prices are stronger, with negative-price trades a thing of the past thanks to new pipelines. Even crude prices are better than some might think, with Permian barrels pricing over Cushing for many months now. The Permian in 2021 is certainly a half-empty or half-full type of market. We go for the latter in today’s blog, in which we outline our view of production growth in West Texas this year.

If you are looking for a way to focus on 2021 without reflecting on the last 12 months, we might have a deal for you. That’s because Permian natural gas and oil production is starting off this year at levels very close to where they finished 2019. That’s right: as far as the Permian is concerned, you can almost skip entirely over 2020 and pick up right where we left off the prior year. Well, for the most part. Oil prices are lower, rig counts have been reduced, and industry consolidation has removed some of the familiar Permian names from the stock ticker. In general, the atmosphere out in West Texas has calmed down dramatically from the headiest days of Permian growth and it’s safe to say it’s easier to grab lunch in Midland these days. Does that mean things in the basin aren’t still interesting out there? If you ask us, the answer is a resounding “No!” For starters, growth is back in the basin, even if it is at a slower pace than in 2019, and natural gas prices are stronger, with negative-price trades a thing of the past thanks to new pipelines. Even crude prices are better than some might think, with Permian barrels pricing over Cushing for many months now. The Permian in 2021 is certainly a half-empty or half-full type of market. We go for the latter in today’s blog, in which we outline our view of production growth in West Texas this year.

Expectations for Permian natural gas are far from what they were when this year started. Lower crude oil prices and a focus on capital discipline have slashed rig counts by about two-thirds since January and there are few signs of a recovery on the horizon. As a result, just about everyone’s forecast for Permian gas growth is much lower than just a few months ago, with tepid gains through the early 2020s now the industry’s consensus view. However, if you think all this means that Permian gas markets have lost their relevance, think again. Despite the modest production growth anticipated, the basin’s gas flow patterns will soon be thrown into shock as 4 Bcf/d of new outflow capacity to Gulf Coast markets starts up next year, when the Permian Highway and Whistler pipelines begin operation. And that shock will reverberate through regional basis relationships, including at the Waha Hub, which we expect to end 2021 much stronger than it is currently. Today, we begin a series that looks at Permian, as well as Gulf Coast, gas markets over the months and years ahead, highlighting findings from RBN’s new, Special Edition Multi-Client Market Study.

The market’s spotlight in recent days has been on negative prices for both Permian crude oil and natural gas, but in the shadows a powerful rally has taken place in the forward market for Permian gas at the Waha hub.  Much of this month’s price weakness for gas in West Texas has been driven by pipeline maintenance. But the Waha forward curve indicates market expectations for higher prices in May, and the possibility of a summer in which Permian gas prices could be some of the strongest on a consistent basis since negative pricing first appeared in the basin back in 2018. Today, we dive into the drivers behind the rise in forward Permian gas prices.

Permian natural gas markets felt a cold shiver this week, but not a meteorologically induced one of the types running through other regional markets. Gas marketers braced as prices for Permian natural gas skidded toward a new threshold: zero! That’s not basis, but absolute price, a long-anticipated possibility that became reality on Monday. The cause is very likely driven, in our view, by continued associated gas production growth poured into a region that won’t see new greenfield pipeline capacity for at least 10 months. What happens next isn’t clear, but expect Permian gas market participants to be a little excitable or jittery over the next few months. Today, we review this latest complication for Permian natural gas markets.