Tennessee Gas Pipeline

For several years now, the biggest hurdle to natural gas production growth in the Marcellus/Utica was takeaway constraints — there simply wasn’t enough capacity on gas pipelines out of Appalachia to support a significant bump-up in regional output. Things have been changing though. The Mountain Valley Pipeline and a slew of expansion projects along Transco are allowing increasing volumes of gas to move to and through Virginia and the Carolinas. The proposed Borealis Pipeline across Ohio would enable up to 2 Bcf/d to move down the Texas Gas Transmission system to the Gulf Coast. And, as we discuss in today’s RBN blog, Kinder Morgan is planning several major projects in the Deep South — including the 2.1-Bcf/d Mississippi Crossing and 1.3-Bcf/d South System Expansion 4 projects — to move more gas into Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina. 

For the first time in years, natural gas takeaway capacity constraints from the Marcellus/Utica producing region appear to be easing, even as production volumes from the area continue to record new highs. That’s allowed regional supply prices this year to strengthen dramatically relative to national benchmark Henry Hub. A closer look at pipeline flow data indicates these developments stem from shifting gas flows that coincide with the ramp-up of Energy Transfer Partners’ Rover Pipeline. In today’s blog, we continue our update of the Northeast gas market with the latest on Rover’s gas receipts, along with its effects on other regional takeaway capacity and price relationships.

The current phase of Mexico’s natural gas pipeline buildout, led by the country’s Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE), is nearing completion. With 22 new pipelines built or under construction, the effort has dramatically reshaped Mexico’s natural gas supply portfolio. The capacity of the pipeline network within Mexico has been tripled with the addition of 18 new pipelines, while four new pipelines on the U.S. side of the border will add almost 6 Bcf/d of export capacity by late 2018. As part of the building spree, CFE also initiated development of two new gas headers to be built in Texas: a 6-Bcf/d header at Waha in West Texas that was recently completed by a consortium of Carso Energy, MasTec, and Energy Transfer and the 5-Bcf/d Nueces Header, now under construction by Enbridge at Agua Dulce in South Texas. Today, we discuss CFE’s Nueces Header and its role in moving more gas south.

Demand for U.S. natural gas exports via Texas is set to increase by close to 6 Bcf/d over the next few years.  At the same time, Texas production has declined more than 3.0 Bcf/d (16%) to less than 17 Bcf/d in the first half of November from a peak of over 20 Bcf/d in December 2014, and any upside from current levels is likely to be far outpaced by that export demand growth. Much of the supply for export demand from Texas will need to come from outside the state, the most likely source being the only still-growing supply regions—the Marcellus/Utica shales in the U.S. Northeast. Perryville Hub in northeastern Louisiana will be a key waystation for southbound flows from the Marcellus/Utica to target these export markets along the Louisiana and Texas Gulf Coast, particularly given the hub’s connectivity and prime location. Today, we look at the pipeline expansion projects into Perryville that will make this flow reversal possible.

Natural gas pipeline takeaway projects under development out of the U.S. Northeast would enable ~10 Bcf/d to flow south from the Marcellus/Utica supply area. About half of that southbound capacity is geared to serve growing power generation demand directly south and east via the Mid-Atlantic states. But another nearly 5.0 Bcf/d is headed southwest to the Louisiana and Texas Gulf Coast for growing LNG export and Mexico demand—and that is on top of about 4.4 Bcf/d of reversal (or backhaul) capacity already added over the past two years. Much of the Gulf Coast-bound backhaul capacity will converge on the Perryville Hub, a market center located in northeastern Louisiana, about 220 miles north of the U.S. national benchmark Henry Hub. As such, the ability for gas to move through Perryville and get to downstream demand market centers will be key to balancing the natural gas markets. Today, we take a closer look at the historical and future pipeline capacity in and around the Perryville Hub.

For gas producers in Appalachia, this has not been such a good summer for basis – the price they get for their gas versus the benchmark at Henry Hub, LA.  Basis in the eastern part of the Marcellus has been particularly weak, with negative differentials extending into New York.   Even at some West Virginia points like Dominion South, producers have faced ugly basis for the past few months.  But there are some points that have been relatively immune, including Columbia Gas TCO, which has been hanging in there at pricing pretty close to Henry.  Even when parts of the Dominion South and TCO pipeline systems are on top of each other.  Why are basis differentials in the Appalachian Mountains hopping around all over the place?  Today we look into why some Northeast prices have taken a hit and others have not.

With U.S. natural gas production continuing to hit all-time records, the big question for the gas market is demand. Where is all that gas going to go?  Well, we are pretty sure that most of the supply growth will be absorbed by the triad of new gas fired power generation, industrial demand and exports.   The funny thing is that most of the volumes associated with these demand sources are located in one region – the southeastern U.S., with a heavy concentration of demand in Louisiana, home of the Henry Hub.  This shift is turning what was a major supply area into an epicenter of natural gas demand, with the need for extensive new transportation paths into, rather than out of, the region.  Today, we explore the implications of this transformation.

Faced with 7 Bcf/d of new Marcellus production over the past couple of years and possibly another 10 Bcf/d of production growth coming from the Northeast region between now and 2017, the interstate pipeline companies that traditionally delivered natural gas to the Northeast from outside the region have found it necessary to completely o reconfigure their assets. In effect, gas supplies that traditionally have originated from the Gulf Coast are being displaced by Marcellus production.  The resulting pipeline projects are expanding capacity and redirecting flows to provide new shippers with competitive access to existing markets.  Today we look at the types of pipeline projects going on and then zero in on Tennessee Gas Pipeline.