Source Rock

Estimates of how much oil or natural gas are “technically” or “economically” recoverable are moving targets. Until just a few years ago, the hydrocarbon-producing potential of the Bakken, the Permian and the Marcellus were vastly underestimated—hardly anyone would have wagered in 1995 that North Dakota, West Texas and northeastern Pennsylvania would emerge as oil and gas hotspots. So what are we to make of California’s Monterey tight oil play, which as recently as 2011 was hailed as the next big thing for tight-oil production, but which is now on just about no one’s mind? Today, we consider what it might take to turn a hydrocarbon frog into a prince.

With so much positive news out there about ever-rising production from unconventional oil and natural gas plays, word that the Energy Information Administration has reduced its estimate of recoverable oil from California’s Monterey Shale region by 95% is sobering, to say the least. EIA’s Monterey shocker serves as a reminder that the U.S. energy renaissance is in its infancy, that each shale play has different characteristics and challenges, and that there is still a lot to learn. In this blog, we look at what had been seen as California’s next big thing, and at whether new technology and techniques might revive Monterey’s promise.