Shale Play

Producer pioneers in the Tuscaloosa Marine Shale (TMS) are finally figuring out how best to wring large volumes of Light Louisiana Crude from the oil-rich play’s notoriously complex geology. But are they “cracking the code” at just the wrong time, when crude prices are crashing and investors are shifting their focus to shale-play sweet spots with low drilling costs? Some say no; that fine-tuned completion formulas, declining drilling costs and a favorable tax environment make the TMS a “go”, even in these tough times. But others say yes; that it’s time to move on from the TMS, at least for now. Today we revisit the still-promising TMS in central Louisiana and southwestern Mississippi, and assesses whether the play many consider to be the next big thing needs to wait for higher oil prices to shine.

Growing Canadian production of oil sands bitumen requires diluent to blend it to pipeline flow specifications. The resulting demand for diluent exceeds local Canadian supply from plant condensate production (aka, natural gasoline) – leading to imports from the US of more than 150 Mb/d in 2013 – a figure expected to grow to 460 Mb/d by 2018. That expectation for future import growth is based on the assumption that Canadian condensate supplies would remain relatively flat at about 140 Mb/d. But could the developing Duvernay gas shale play in Western Alberta turn those estimates on their head? Today we investigate the consequences for US condensate demand.