Rail Tank Cars

Last week Transport Canada (the federal department responsible for transportation policy) directed that DOT-111 rail tank cars built prior to new safety standards proposed in January 2014 be phased out or refitted within three years. Fifty five thousand railcars built to the new standards are currently on back-order. The directive could constrain rapidly developing Canadian crude by rail shipments to the US - currently running at about 250 Mb/d according to an April report by Peters and Company. Increased use of crude-by-rail is driven by pipeline congestion out of Alberta - a situation the latest Keystone pipeline delay appears to make worse.    Today we review unit train options out of Western Canada.

A dramatic increase in crude-by-rail shipments over the past two years as well as surging lease rates for hard to come by tank cars encouraged an 18 month backlog of new orders – even while crude shipments only represent a small fraction of total rail carloads. Changes in the crude price differentials that encouraged the growth of crude by rail have reduced both the demand for tank cars and lease rates. Today we present analysis from PLG Consulting that shows rail tank car oversupply is quite possible - barring a few "wild cards".

Narrowing price differentials between inland crudes tied to West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and coastal crudes tied to Brent are resulting in a move away from rail shipments and back towards pipelines by producers in North Dakota. The switch away from rail is already having an impact on the lease rates for rail tank cars. Which could call into question the huge backlog of orders for new tank cars. Today we ponder the possibility of a bust in crude-by-rail shipments.

Western Canadian heavy crude oil producers have a lot of rail tank cars on order but so far none of the loading terminals in the production region can handle unit trains. The pace of terminal development in Alberta is far slower than North Dakota in 2012. Because you can ship raw bitumen without diluent there are potential cost savings over pipelines but the load and offload facilities are more complex. Today we conclude our mini survey of Canadian heavy crude loading terminals.