It’s been a busy few years for big-money M&A in the oil and gas industry. Now, having acquired their targeted assets — often running up debt in the process — several E&Ps have been selling off non-core holdings and, with those deals, zeroing in on the shale basins they see as the keys to their success.
The summer movie season opened with the latest — and reportedly last — entry in the Tom Cruise-propelled “Mission: Impossible” franchise called “The Final Reckoning.” That title reminded us that, to E&P executives, the commodity price crash at the onset of the pandemic in 2020 must have seemed like the final blow in a series of financial crises that brought many of their companies to the verge of bankruptcy. But in a dramatic, “Mission: Impossible”-style recovery, producers restored their battered balance sheets and won back investors by radically shifting cash allocations. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll review the rise of the new E&P hero — dividends — and analyze how producers apportioned cash flows in Q1 2025.
As 2023 was drawing to a close, folks with 401(k) plans and IRAs were wondering whether stocks would have another great year in 2024. Many of us tracking oil and gas E&Ps were asking a similar question about upstream M&A: Is there any way to match the consolidation frenzy that started in mid-2020 and didn’t let up? The answer is, yes — 2024 was another barn-burner year for acquisitions. (And for Wall Street and our investments!). In today’s RBN blog, we discuss highlights from our new Drill Down report on the past year in producer M&A.
Since the advent of the Shale Revolution, the U.S. has experienced a massive surge in oil, gas and NGL production — creating a bonanza of opportunities. But the attitudes of energy companies, owners and investors have shifted from “drill-baby-drill” to a focus on returning value to shareholders. It’s an evolution reminiscent of the economic concept known as the product life cycle. And that got us thinking. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll discuss the introduction, growth and maturity phases of the Shale Revolution, assess where we are today, and explore a couple of potential paths forward.
Even now, three-plus years after the start of the oil and gas industry’s biggest consolidation in a quarter century, hardly a month goes by without another major M&A announcement. Just this week, Civitas Resources said it will acquire acreage and production in the Permian from Vencer Energy for $2.1 billion. The primary drivers of these deals — many of which are valued in the billions of dollars — are clear. Among other things, E&Ps are seeking scale and the economies of scale that come with it. They also have come to believe that it makes more sense to grow production through M&A than through aggressive capital spending. And, for some producers not yet involved in the all-important Permian, acquiring even a smaller E&P there provides a foothold to build on. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss highlights from our newly released Drill Down report on the past 12 months of upstream M&A activity in the U.S. oil patch.
It’s only natural that deals like Chevron’s $7.6 billion acquisition of PDC Energy and ExxonMobil’s $4.9 billion purchase of Denbury grab the market’s attention. After all, the buyers are names known to everyone — even those who only think about hydrocarbons when they’re filling up at their local gas station. But a lot of other, lower-profile M&A action is happening too, especially in the Permian and also in the Eagle Ford. You might say these are cases of “Eat or be eaten” — or, in one recent case, “Eat and be eaten.” In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the plans by Permian Resources to acquire Earthstone Energy; Civitas Resources to buy assets in the Permian’s Delaware and Midland basins from Tap Rock Resources and Hibernia Resources, respectively; and SilverBow Resources to scoop up Chesapeake Energy’s last remaining assets in the Eagle Ford.
While soaring commodity prices have been the most important driver of record E&P cash flow generation over the past 12 months, shareholders have also benefited from a new, post-pandemic financial discipline that has lowered the industry’s reinvestment rate to an all-time low of 35%. However, the 2022 capital expenditures initially planned by the 42 U.S. producers we track were expected to rise a healthy 24% over 2021 levels and their spending plans for the just-finished year continued to increase as 2022 wore on. While only a handful of E&Ps have released their actual 2023 budgets, their most recent conference call comments suggest that the investment momentum will keep building in the new year. In today’s RBN blog, we analyze producers’ 2022 capital investment and the key indicators for 2023 growth.
With soaring oil prices dominating recent headlines, it’s no surprise that profits and cash flows for the U.S. exploration-and-production (E&P) sector rebounded dramatically in 2021 from heavy, pandemic-induced losses in 2020. Rising crude oil and natural gas demand fueled a whopping $150 billion turnaround in results, as the 43 major publicly traded E&Ps we monitor recorded $86 billion in pre-tax income after incurring a net loss of $66 billion in 2020. Oh, and by the way, 2021 was the most profitable year in at least the last two decades for producers, which reported income two-thirds higher than the previous peak in 2014, when commodity prices were significantly higher. In today’s RBN blog, we compare producers’ 2021 performance with 2020 and 2014 and explain why results should be even stronger this year.
So far, most of the merger-and-acquisition activity among crude-oil-focused producers in the COVID era has occurred where you would expect it: the Permian, which seems to dominate almost every discussion about the U.S. energy industry. More recently, though, there has been an uptick in E&P consolidation in the Denver-Julesburg Basin in the Rockies and, earlier this month, in the Bakken. There, Whiting Petroleum and Oasis Petroleum — two once-struggling producers — have agreed to a merger of equals that will create the Bakken’s second-largest producer and the largest pure-play E&P. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the companies’ stock-and-cash deal, which will result in a yet-to-be-renamed entity with an enterprise value of about $6 billion.
Enbridge’s proposal to have crude oil shippers on its now fully uncommitted Mainline sign long-term contracts for as much as 90% of the 2.9-MMb/d pipeline network’s capacity is a big deal — and controversial. Refiners and integrated producer/refiners generally support the plan, which is now up for consideration by the Canada Energy Regulator, while Western Canadian producers with no refining operations of their own — and, for many, no history of shipping on the Mainline — mostly oppose it. What’s driving their contrasting views? It’s complicated, of course, but what it really comes down to is that everyone wants to avoid what they see as a bad outcome. Refiners and “integrateds” fear that if the current month-to-month approach to pipeline space allocation remains in place, cost-of-service-based tariffs on Mainline will soar when new takeaway capacity is built on the Trans Mountain and Keystone systems and fewer barrels flow on Mainline. Producers, in turn, are wary of making multi-year, take-or-pay commitments to Enbridge if they’ll soon have other takeaway options, and are equally concerned that they’d be left in the lurch if they don’t commit to Mainline and the Trans Mountain Expansion and Keystone XL projects don’t get built. Today, we consider both sides of this important debate.
