PADD IV

According to the latest Energy Information Administration (EIA) monthly Drilling Productivity Report, crude production from the Niobrara shale in Colorado and Wyoming peaked at 491 Mb/d in April 2015 and is forecast to decline by ~100 Mb/d to 388 Mb/d through March 2016 – in response to falling crude prices and lower drilling activity. Meantime midstream companies are still building new pipeline capacity out of the region with the Saddlehorn and Grand Mesa projects set to add 350 Mb/d of takeaway capacity this year (2016). The pipeline build out has already caused a shift of crude shipments away from crude-by-rail (CBR) that peaked in December 2014. Yet as we describe today - rail terminals and infrastructure are still under construction in the region.

Data from the new Energy Information Administration (EIA) monthly report on crude-by-rail (CBR) shows a marked increase in shipments out of the Rockies during 2014 as production outstripped pipeline capacity. The data history EIA provides also shows that significant CBR movements within the Gulf Coast region (presumably out of the Permian) occurred in 2013 when crude price differentials helped rail economics. Rail shipments to California from Texas have yet to take off however.  Today we wrap up our analysis of monthly EIA CBR data.

Refineries in the Rocky Mountains region, defined by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) EIA as Petroleum Administration for Defense District (PADD) IV, are smaller and less complex than they are in the rest of the U.S. The region is landlocked and the 16 refineries – average size only 42 Mb/d - rely on U.S. light sweet crude produced locally or in North Dakota as well as Western Canadian heavy crude. The combination of rich supplies of crude and increased demand for refined products such as diesel means that refinery margins are high. These healthy economics are encouraging refinery expansions. Today we examine these plans.

No, we aren’t talking about Colorado’s recent legalization of the “wacky weed”, but rather the high that the rush of light crudes is bringing to the refining industry in PADD IV, the Rockies region.  While John Denver’s famous lyrics spoke of the magic of the Rocky Mountains, regional refiners have found elation in recent years as both domestic and readily accessible Western Canadian production increased, stranding crude supplies, putting downward pressure on prices and lifting their margins sky high.  Today we examine how this has impacted the economics of the region and incentivized investment.