oversupply

Yesterday (January 14, 2016) Cheniere Energy announced a delay to the first shipment of liquefied natural gas (LNG) out of its Sabine Pass liquefaction/export terminal in Louisiana that was expected this month (January 2016), but is now planned for late February or March of this year. Meanwhile, LNG demand has leveled off. LNG prices have collapsed and stayed low. And a slew of liquefaction capacity planned and committed to years ago—Sabine Pass and other U.S. projects included—is coming online, suggesting an LNG supply glut that could last into the early 2020s. But are the LNG market’s prospects really as grim as all that sounds? Today we begin a review of recent developments in the LNG market, and consider their implications for U.S. natural gas producers, midstream companies, and LNG exporters.

The latest Energy Information Administration (EIA) Drilling Productivity Report projects natural gas production in the Marcellus and Utica up 170 MMcf/d  in April, and forecasts growth of another 150 MMcf/d in May and June to average about 3.8 Bcf/d higher in Q2 than in the same period last year. While there is talk of deferred well completions and shut-ins, it has yet to translate to a slowdown in production volumes in the Northeast region. Our analysis suggests that barring record-high demand, the region will struggle to balance growing supplies this summer with potentially dramatic consequences for prices Today we conclude our analysis of the Northeast gas supply/demand balance.

Prices for U.S. domestic benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude on the CME NYMEX futures exchange crashed $7.54/Bbl to $66.15/Bbl Friday (November 28, 2014) - down 11 percent since the Wednesday before Thanksgiving and 38 percent since their recent high in late June. International benchmark Brent crude prices on the ICE futures exchange fell 10 percent to $70.02 /Bbl over the holiday and are down 39 percent since June. The underlying cause is oversupply but the short term trigger for last week’s nosedive was OPEC’s failure to respond to falling prices at their Thanksgiving meeting in Vienna by reining in production. Today we discuss the fate of crude prices after the OPEC meeting.

Yesterday we looked at Tuesday’s natural gas price 13cnt whipsaw and the apparent resistance to prices below $2.26 or so.  I closed that blog with a commitment to look again at the fundamentals for oversupply, maxed out storage capacity and the impending collision of natural gas prices with reality (for background see Whip it, Whip it good).  That’s what we’ll do today.