Last year, Alaska produced only 421 Mb/d of crude oil, barely one-fifth the state’s peak output in 1988. But two new projects — one already producing and the other only weeks away from “first oil” — will add a combined 100 Mb/d and a third, even bigger one will contribute another 180 Mb/d by 2030.
President Trump’s flurry of executive orders upon returning to office included one titled “Unleashing Alaska’s Extraordinary Resource Potential,” which aims to see the realization of the long-dormant Alaska LNG project, a multibillion-dollar plan to bring natural gas several hundred miles from Alaska’s North Slope to Anchorage and Cook Inlet for eventual liquefaction and export. The president’s endorsement renewed interest in a project that has been on the drawing board for more than 30 years. In today’s RBN blog, we look at why there is renewed interest in the project, some of the hefty challenges it would need to overcome, and why many still see it as a long shot.
There’s been at least some progress the last two years on Alaska’s ambitious plan to pipe huge volumes of North Slope-sourced natural gas to the state’s southern coast, supercool it into liquid form, and ship the resulting LNG to Asia. Over that same period, however, the international LNG market has been rattled by weak demand, rock-bottom prices and an impending supply glut. Alaska is itching to become a major LNG supplier by the mid-2020s, but is anyone willing to buy what it’s selling? Today, we provide an update on Alaska’s LNG plan, including a newly approved state buy-out of TransCanada’s interest in key elements of it.
Alaska officials, concerned the state’s once-dominant role in U.S. energy production will continue slipping, are taking a fresh look at helping to jump-start a combined natural gas treatment plant, gas pipeline and LNG export project that would free vast volumes of natural gas now stranded at the state’s North Slope. A new study commissioned by the state found that it could make sense for Alaska to take a 20% or higher equity stake in the project, but that there are significant risks the state would need to mitigate. Today we look at whether the 49th state can make a long-stalled plan by producers to move North Slope gas to market a reality by the mid-2020s.
Aside from dwindling oil production (that we discussed last week) the State of Alaska is also home to 35 Tcf of proven conventional natural gas reserves. These could be consumed domestically or exported as liquefied natural gas (LNG). Alaska is closer to Asian markets than the 20 LNG export projects currently sitting in the Department of Energy approval queue. But the massive infrastructure investment required to get Alaskan gas from north of the Arctic Circle to market requires complex alignment of competing producer, shipper and government interests. Today we review efforts by the 49th State to find markets for its natural gas.
