light sweet crude

U.S. refiners have been enjoying some very good times the past couple of years. Most important, refining margins have soared due to a tight global product supply/demand environment brought on by, among other things, the post-COVID demand recovery, refinery shutdowns, Russia/Ukraine war effects, and high natural gas prices. Traditionally, the bulk of refining margins have come from (1) robust “crack spreads” (the general yardstick for measuring overall refining sector health, simply by taking the difference between a basket of refined products and key light sweet crude markets like WTI Cushing or MEH) and (2) the lower crude-input costs that many refineries benefit from, either because of location-related advantages or their ability to process lower-cost crude like medium and heavy sours. But location discounts have narrowed in recent years due to the buildout of pipelines and, as we discuss in today’s RBN blog, the big quality discounts that complex refiners relished through much of last year and the first few months of 2023 have withered. The question is, why?

Next week (January 2016 - according to press reports) Enterprise Products Partners will load the first cargo of U.S. crude oil to be exported without regard to the regulations that restricted such movements to most countries except in certain circumstances for the past forty years. It looks like the lifting of crude oil export restrictions came too late to have much impact on U.S. production or prices in an era of free falling prices. Today we look at the impact of the change on the crude price spread between U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and international counterpart Brent.

A study released yesterday (August 4, 2014) by the North Dakota Petroleum Council (NDPC) details the final results of work they commissioned to extensively sample and test North Dakota crude oil. The goal was to establish the quality characteristics of Bakken crude oil to determine if it is more risky to transport by rail than other crudes. The results show Bakken crude to be similar to other light sweet crudes, to be consistent across the producing region and that it meets all the current hazardous materials transportation requirements. Today we review the report’s findings.

If the flood of new crude arriving at the Gulf Coast during the first six months of 2014 overwhelms refiners in the region, then the pricing consequences may very well be quite radical. Could prices at the Gulf Coast flip to trade at a discount to West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude delivered at the Cushing hub that is home to the CME NYMEX contract? Even if Gulf Coast crude retains its premium over WTI, deep discounts may be required to encourage refiners to process increasing quantities of light sweet crude. A downward spiral of crude prices could ensue.  Today we lay out possible price scenarios.

The bases are loaded for another 2 MMb/d of pipeline capacity to bring additional crude supplies to the Texas Gulf Coast by the end of 2014. The majority of that payload will likely be light sweet crude from tight oil formations, a.k.a., shale. As the flood of crude headed to Texas passed through the Midwest over the past two years, prices at Cushing and points north were heavily discounted versus coastal markets. Now the discount action has moved to the Gulf Coast where light sweet crude imports have been pushed out. Today we look at the impact of the changing supply position on crude price differentials.

The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) discount to Brent has been as wide as $27/Bbl in the past two years and traded at an average of $17.50/Bbl in 2012. Since February this year the spread has narrowed 80 percent to less than $5/Bbl – closing at $4.55/Bbl on Friday (July 5, 2013). Surging WTI prices are over $100/Bbl for the first time since May 2012.Today we look at what is behind the recent sudden narrowing in the spread.

The new Turner Mason (TMC) study titled “North American Crude and Condensate Outlook” (NACCO) forecasts a high case 8.2 MMb/d increase in crude supplies from US and Canadian production over the next 10 years. While most crude imports will be pushed out by this production surge over the 10-year period, a minimum structural import level of about 1.4 MMb/d will remain. As domestic and Canadian crude supplies overwhelm refining capacity in coastal regions TMC predict crude exports will be required to balance demand. Today we review TMC’s crude market and refinery operations predictions.

Three years ago in June 2010, prices for the international benchmark Brent crude and the US domestic benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded within $1/Bbl of each other. Then in August 2010, WTI began to trade at a discount to Brent that widened out as far as $28/Bbl in November 2011 and averaged $17.50/Bbl in 2012. Since May 2013 the WTI discount to Brent has narrowed to an average $8.50/Bbl. Today we wonder if it’s time to tie a yellow ribbon round a West Texas oak tree.

The Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP) is currently the nation’s largest waterborne crude import terminal. Throughput at LOOP has been declining as domestic crude production has increased. Crude oil imports were over 1 MMb/d in 2008 but dropped to 0.5 MMb/d by September 2012. Light sweet crude imports in September 2012 were 10 percent of their level in 2008. Today we look at future prospects for this huge marine terminal and storage facility on the Louisiana Gulf Coast.

Yesterday we learned that Gulf Coast diesel cracks (margins over crude) averaged $12.88/Bbl since August 2010 (read it here if you missed it). The result has been a Gulf Coast diesel-refining boom. Diesel production to feed this boom comes from refining conventional domestic and imported crude supplies that currently feed Gulf Coast refineries. Today we discover how new supplies of unconventional shale crude will force Gulf Coast refineries that process these light sweet crudes to kick their diesel crack habit.