The U.S. natural gas market is starting its 2015-16 winter season with a whopping 3,929 Bcf in storage, equal to the record maximum level set Nov. 2, 2012. Meanwhile gas production is also well above last year. Given these conditions, the market will need record demand to absorb incremental production and work off the surplus in storage. But weather forecasts so far are pointing toward a delayed start to winter heating demand. The price of natural gas has sagged under the pressure with the prompt CME/NYMEX Henry Hub futures contract treading at a price less than half this time last year. And, now, a number of operational factors and constraints are set to kick in for the winter that could further disrupt an oversupplied market. In today’s blog, we look at the storage and transportation dynamics that could factor into how the market balances this winter.
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) yesterday (Thursday) reported the U.S. natural gas storage inventory is 3,877 Bcf as of Oct. 23, which is above the 5-year maximum for this week and within striking distance of breaching the all-time record high of 3,929 Bcf (Nov. 2, 2012) by the end of the traditional storage injection season on Oct. 31. And, while the production growth rate has slowed compared to recent years, and even dipped a bit over the past couple of weeks, total gas production is still near record levels and about 2.0 Bcf/d higher than last year. Now the gas market is about to flip to withdrawal season, when winter heating demand typically exceeds available local production, leading to storage drawdowns. The combination of high storage and production levels sets up a bearish dynamic for the winter market. Today, we take a look at the supply and demand balance going into the winter gas market.
Last year at this time (May 2014) the natural gas market was concerned with how depleted US natural gas storage might be by the start of the 2014-15 gas winter season. A short year later, the concern now is how full storage could get before next winter. CME/NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas futures prices for June delivery closed at 2.915/MMBtu yesterday – presumably reflecting a decidedly bearish 2015 supply/demand balance with forecasts predicting summer-ending inventory at upwards of 4.1 Tcf, which would be the highest on record. Today we provide an update on gas fundamentals.
