DPR

The monthly Energy Information Administration (EIA) Drilling Productivity Report (DPR) provides a leading indication of expected crude and natural gas production from seven leading shale basins across the U.S. The latest DPR released earlier this week (March 7, 2016) included a massive 2.5 Bcf/d upward revision to the shale gas production forecast for March. The upward revisions fly in the face of expectations of production declines at recent 17-year low prices. But they also validate daily pipeline flow data showing actual production climbing to a new daily record in February 2016 and continuing to stay robust. Today we break down the latest DPR data, what the revisions mean and consider implications for the market.

On Tuesday of this week the Energy Information Administration released its latest Drilling Productivity Report, projecting declines in US natural gas production volumes. Meanwhile, daily pipeline flow data shows gas production hitting record highs and gas storage fill could also be heading toward maximum levels.  The CME/NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas price for the November 2015 is responding to these burgeoning supplies, settling yesterday at $2.518/MMBtu, near all-time lows for this time of year. Today we continue our look at the various sources of natural gas production data and what they tell us.

The CME/NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas futures price averaged $2.64/MMBtu in September, the lowest level for any September since 2001, and it continues to hover at a similar low for October so far. Rig counts are down nearly 60% since December 2014. The market is on high alert for the first sign of production declines that might encourage higher prices – believing this to be a matter of sooner or later. Yet natural gas production has been hitting all-time records. Today we look at monthly natural gas production data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

A question we get asked all the time these days is whether or not U.S. crude output has begun to decline yet and if so by how much? We don’t actually think the answer makes a lot of difference to the market - especially when you consider changing imports and inventory. But ever since the OPEC meeting last November (2014) failed to take action to reduce  output to support oil prices - market watchers have placed a lot of emphasis on when U.S. shale producers would respond by cutting production. So regardless of the merits of the question we are all living in a marketplace where knowing the “real” state of U.S. production – and whether it is up or down – has become a big deal. To that end today we look at crude production data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Last month the Energy Information Administration (EIA) debuted a new monthly report detailing oil and gas drilling productivity in six of the largest US production basins. Rather than just being an “after the fact” report telling us what happened in the past, the new report provides a forecast of oil and gas production for the current and next month out in each of the six basins. The initial report indicates that oil production will increase by roughly 60 Mb/d in these basins during November with gas production increasing by 0.4 Bcf/d. The report also highlights continued improvement in rig productivity. Today we begin a series interpreting the new drilling rig productivity data.