With Lower-48 natural gas production at record highs and averaging more than 5.0 Bcf/d higher than this time last year, LNG export demand will be all the more critical this winter and the rest of 2018 in order to balance the U.S. gas market. Deliveries to Cheniere Energy’s Sabine Pass LNG facility (SPL) are above 3.0 Bcf/d. Dominion Energy’s Cove Point LNG is due to add nearly 0.8 Bcf/d of export capacity and begin exporting commissioning cargoes any day now. Two other projects — Elba Island LNG and Freeport LNG — are due online before the end of 2018, while another high-capacity project, Cameron LNG, faces delays. These facilities will increase baseload demand for gas in the new year, but will it be enough, and how will it impact gas pipeline flows upstream? Today, we provide an update on the timing and potential impacts of new export LNG capacity over the next year.

RBN NATGAS Haynesville

The RBN NATGAS Haynesville is a weekly natural gas fundamentals analysis focused on supply, flow, and LNG-driven demand dynamics within the Haynesville basin.

In less than two years, LNG exports have quickly become a staple of the U.S. gas market, helping to balance oversupply conditions and keep the storage inventory in check. This new source of demand first came on in early 2016, at a time when gas production in the Lower 48 was contracting. But in 2017, the narrative changed. As we discussed in Signs, Signs, Everywhere a Sign, production has surged to new heights in recent months, with volumes hitting a record 76.2 Bcf/d in just the last 30 days and averaging 75.5 Bcf/d in that period. Moreover, as we detailed in Fill Me Up Buttercup, there’s more than 6.0 Bcf/d of pipeline takeaway capacity set to come online from the Marcellus/Utica producing region this winter, all but guaranteeing that production will continue growing through 2018. So, now more than ever, the market is in dire need of consistent demand growth.

LNG exports have been that for the last couple of years, as illustrated in Figure 1 by the impressive trajectory of deliveries to SPL since its first export cargo back in February 2016. SPL currently receives gas from three interconnects:  Cheniere’s Creole Trail Pipeline (CTPL, blue), Kinder Morgan’s Natural Gas Pipeline Co. (NGPL, orange layer) and, since late summer, also directly from Williams’ Transco Pipeline (gray layer). (See Just Can’t Make No Connection and Toe bone connected to the foot bone for more on how those flows have evolved.)

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About the song

"All Down The Line" was on the B side of the single “Happy,” and opens side four of The Stone's 1972 double album opus Exile On Main Street.

Most basic tracks for Exile were recorded during the Rolling Stones’ tax exile from Britain in the basement of Villa Nellcôte, Keith Richards’ rental on the French Riviera near Nice. The band used The Rolling Stones’ mobile recording studio, with Jimmy Miller producing, and Andy & Glyn Johns, among others, manning the boards. It was recorded between June 1971 and March 1972. Most of the overdubs were done at Sunset Sound in Los Angeles from December 1971 to March 1972. Exile On Main Street was released on May 12, 1972, and quickly went to #1 on the Billboard Top 200. Keith Richards called Exile a “messy rock-and-roll masterpiece," and his fingerprints are all over it, since he was the only band member present for all of the recording of the basic tracks in his basement. Critics and fans seem to agree with Mr. Richards’ assessment, as Exile went platinum, and it's hailed by many rock critics as one of the greatest records of all time. Tales of the debauchery and decadence that went on during the Villa Nellcôte days are legendary.

The personnel on "All Down the Line" are: Mick Jagger on lead vocals, Keith Richards and Kathi McDonald on background vocals, Mick Taylor on slide guitar, Keith Richards on rhythm guitar, Bill Wyman on electric bass, Bill Blummer on acoustic stand-up bass, Charlie Watts on drums, and Jimmy Miller on maracas. Since its release, "All Down the Line," is always included in The Stones’ live shows.

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