Wow! Pragmatism! Driven by physics, economics and, yes, even politics. It’s clear that the reset that took off in 2025 will carry into 2026, and energy markets are breathing a collective sigh of relief. This turnabout is positive for infrastructure development, long-overdue policy fixes, and energy security. President Trump’s priorities may be a bit less supportive of higher oil prices and rapid crude oil production growth. But that’s a small price to pay for more realistic policies that bolster oil, natural gas and NGLs.
So what does this renewed tilt toward fossil fuels mean for energy markets? With so much changing, there’s just no way to predict what will happen in 2026, right? Nah. All we need to do is stick out our collective RBN necks one more time, peer into our crystal ball, and see what the new year has in store for us.
It’s now 14 years that we’ve been in the prognostications business, and it seems like the world keeps changing faster and getting more unpredictable. But that doesn’t deter us from going for it again. And we have also continued our tradition of looking back on how we did on last year’s predictions. Yes, we check our work! You can see how we did in our 2025 Prognostications Scorecard that was posted on January 1. A couple of misses this time, but we got the important ones right!
Canadian crude output is rising, requiring new export routes. As traditional pathways face constraints, the U.S. Rockies—especially the Guernsey, WY hub—are emerging as key corridors for moving Canadian heavy crude to downstream markets, including the Gulf Coast.
2026 – Year of the Horse
Way back in 2013, when we first dipped our toes into the murky business of energy prognostications,we were happy to take insight wherever we could find it. That led us to the Chinese zodiac, which turned out to be a very useful guide for thinking about energy markets. Really. Last year was year of the snake. ’Nuf said. There was palpable greed in 2019’s Year of the Pig, and COVID 2020 was definitely Year of the Rat. This year the Chinese calendar tells us it is the Year of the Horse — strong, proud and fast. That sounds great. But anybody remember what happened at the end of 2014, the last time it was Year of the Horse? Yep, the first crude oil price crash of the Shale Era. Over the Thanksgiving weekend in 2014, WTI dropped by $7.54/bbl to $66.15/bbl, marking a 38% decline in only five months. In 2014, the horse turned out to be a bucking bronco and the market got thrown hard.
Comments
Thank you! " Pragmatism! Driven by physics, economics and, yes, even politics. It’s clear that the reset that took off in 2025 will carry into 2026." Those are key advocacy points that the GreenNUKE Substack at https://greennuke.substack.com/ has been making since its founding almost two years ago. We are also sharply critical of the Chinese hypocrisy. The industrialized West is supposed to eschew reliable energy from hydrocarbons and nuclear while the BRICS nations strongly embrace that abundant energy. The West is supposed to compete militarily and economically with BRICS nations while relying on unreliable solar, wind, and batteries. China is the origin of the supply chains for all three technologies. Actually, this is mercantilism dressed up with virtue signaling. China consumes more coal than the rest of the world combined. In 2024, the four top wind turbine manufacturers were all Chinese. To learn more, please review GreenNUKE's hour-long podcast with Stu Turley. "Nuclear Truth vs. Renewable Myths: Dr. Gene Nelson Exposes California’s Energy Crisis," Stu Turley and Gene Nelson, Ph.D., December 28, 2025, Energy News Beat.
https://theenergynewsbeat.substack.com/p/nuclear-truth-vs-renewable-myths
So you are all sticking with that average $4.25/MMBtu for 2026?