Did you miss our School of Energy this past March in Calgary? Not a problem! We videoed the whole conference and today we are making School of Energy available online, in streaming video format. The conference video, presentation slides and spreadsheet models are available in segments, or as a full conference package. It’s the next best thing to being there. School of Energy is unlike other natural gas, NGL or crude oil conferences. It combines all three! And the curriculum includes a comprehensive analysis of current energy markets and in-depth instruction on how to use our RBN spreadsheet models covering everything from production economics to gas processing. We walk through key developments for each of the three hydrocarbons including the increasingly important links between them. In today’s blog we describe our latest online offering. Fair warning – today’s blog is a blatant advertorial.
School of Energy Online Overview
We videoed more than fourteen hours of the Spring School of Energy and that is the core material that we are making available. Recognizing that everyone might not have fourteen hours to spend with our videos, we’ve organized School of Energy Online the same way the conference itself is organized – into six Modules.
- MODULE #1: Introduction, Fundamentals and Models Overview
- MODULE #2: Production Economics and Forecasting
- MODULE #3: Natural Gas Markets
- MODULE #4: Crude Oil Markets
- MODULE #5: Natural Gas Liquids
- MODULE #6: What It All Means
You can enroll for a package that includes all six, or individually to Modules #2, #3, #4, or #5. Modules #1 and #6 come along with any single module for no additional charge. There is also a special deal for RBN Backstage Pass subscribers.
MODULE #1: Introduction, Fundamentals and Models – Rusty Braziel and David Braziel
Module #1 combines an overview of the new realities of energy markets following the late-2014 collapse in crude oil prices with an introduction to energy market fundamentals. We examine developments in the markets referenced by RBN as the “drill-bit hydrocarbons”. The term groups together the three hydrocarbons created by the business end of a drill bit and produced from a well – natural gas, natural gas liquids and crude oil. It is that drill bit, the way it is used to drill horizontally, and the hydraulic fracturing techniques applied downhole once the well has been drilled, along with other technologies facilitating the process of drilling and completing wells, that launched and continues to drive the Shale Revolution. Module #1 is included for free with the purchase of any of the other Modules.
The three sections in Module #1 are (1) the New Energy Market Realities and the Domino Effect, (2) the Fundamentals of Fundamentals, Price Differentials and Value and (3) Understanding Energy Fundamentals Models.
MODULE #2: Production Economics and Forecasting – Rusty Braziel and David Braziel
Natural gas, NGLs and crude oil – the drill bit hydrocarbons - may look different and have different end-use markets, but each of these products share a common production source – the wellhead. And they have something else in common. The economics of extracting these hydrocarbons has been changed radically by shale technologies. Module #2 explores extraction economics and forecasting methodologies for the three drill bit hydrocarbons.
The five sections in Module #2 are (1) Basics, Conventional/Unconventional Production, Returns, (2) Well Cost, Production Rates, Decline Curves & Other Variables, (3) Production Forecasting, (4) Production Economics Model, and (5) Production Forecasting Model.
MODULE #3: Natural Gas – Scott Potter, Rick Smead, Sandy Fielden and Carlos Torres
Regardless of low rig counts, natural gas production continues to increase – albeit at a more measured pace than a few years ago. Contributing to that growth are associated gas from crude oil wells, residue gas from ‘wet’ high BTU gas being produced primarily targeted for their NGL yields, and huge production increases in the dry gas portions of the Marcellus and Utica. Module #3 looks at these developments and provides a solid foundation in natural gas market dynamics, including the pipeline transportation network, trading hubs, basis, netbacks, storage, heat rates and degree day calculations.
The seven sections in Module #3 are (1) Market Overview, Natural Gas Fundamentals, (2) Hubs, Basis, Netbacks, Net Spreads, (3) Northeast Supply Surge, Natural Gas Pipeline Projects, (4) Transportation, Rates, and Regulation, (5) Market Trends: Production, Demand, Exports, Pricing, and Basis, (6) Coal vs Gas Model, (7) Natural Gas Pipeline Rate Model, and (8) Canadian Gas Market Dynamics, presented by Carlos Torres, Director with Energy GPS.
MODULE #4: Crude Oil – Sandy Fielden and Peter Howard
Over the past three years, U.S. crude oil production has grown more than 85%, eclipsing the growth rates of both natural gas and NGLs. As U.S. crude oil production has grown and Canadian imports have increased, overseas imports were backed out of North America. The result in late 2014 and early 2015 was a 50% collapse in crude oil prices. Within North America, equally dramatic shifts have been seen in transportation infrastructure – pipelines, crude by rail, and crude by water (U.S. flag barges and ocean going vessels). Module #4 examines all of these developments, incorporates the basics of crude transportation and refining, and works through models for netback analysis, refinery analytics, crack spreads and developments in Canadian oil production.
The ten sections in Module #4 are (1) North America Crude Oil Market Overview, (2) Crude Market Basis, (3) Crude Oil Hubs, (4) Current Developments, Market Trends, (5) Transporting Crude, Condensate Exports, (6) Netbacks overview, (7) Canadian Oil Market Dynamics, presented by Peter Howard, President Emeritus, Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI), (8) Canadian Oil Sands (Bitumen) Netback Model, (9) Crack Spreads and Refinery Yields Models, and (10) Crude Oil Selection Model.
MODULE #5: Natural Gas Liquids – Rusty Braziel and Kelly Van Hull
NGLs extracted from natural gas are today valued at 1.5 to 2 times more than natural gas, even with NGL prices lower than in the recent past and gas prices higher. Consequently many producers continue to focus their drilling activity on the higher NGL content plays. The unsurprising result has been a significant increase in NGL production. But that production could have been even higher. Some of the ethane which could have been produced has been rejected as part of the natural gas stream at processing plants simply because the petrochemical industry had no capacity to use the extra ethane. Other NGLs are also being produced in quantities greater than U.S. demand, and those liquids are being exported at record levels. Module #5 examines these developments, including RBN’s NGL production forecast and provides four important models – natural gas processing economics, the Frac Spread, ethane rejection and petrochemical feedstock economics.
The eleven sections in Module #5 are (1) NGL Market Overview, (2) NGL Basics, (3) NGL Production Forecast, Processing and Transporting NGLs, (4) Supply/Demand Forecast – Ethane, (5) Supply/Demand Forecast - Propane, Butane, Nat Gasoline, (6) US Northeast & Bakken NGLs, (7) Frac Spread Model, (8) NGL Processing Model, (9), NGL Price Forecast Scenarios, (10) Ethane Rejection Model, and (11) Petchem Feedstock Selection Model.
MODULE #6: What it All Means – Rusty Braziel
The final School of Energy Module concentrates on the interrelationships between the natural gas, NGL and crude oil markets. In includes a review of the Domino Effect and how it can be expected to play out in the future, and a unique perspective on the accuracy of all forecasts. Module #6 is primarily focused on the conclusions from all of the content presented in the School of Energy. Module #6 is included for free with the purchase of any of the other Modules.
How to Enroll
As we said above, you can enroll for individual modules or the full conference. Enrollment includes access to the streaming video of that Module recorded at the Spring 2015 School of Energy in Calgary, the PDF slides provided to students at the conference and the MS Excel models also provided to students along with that Module. For more information click School of Energy Online 2015.
About the song
“Ring, ring goes the bell” is the most recognizable line from School Days by Chuck Berry. The song was recorded on January 21, 1957 and peaked at No. 5 on the Billboard Hot 100 in that year. The song has been covered by Jan and Dean, The Beach Boys, AC/DC and was included on The Simpsons 1990 album titled The Simpsons Sing the Blues featuring a lead guitar solo from Joe Walsh.
