No one could’ve seen the energy market disruptions of 2020 coming, and most of us are ready to write off what has been one of the most challenging years the industry has seen in a long time. Yet the events of the past year will most certainly define what unfolds in the New Year and beyond. To make sense of what 2020 will mean for the post-COVID era, we retooled and refreshed our models and forecasts to tackle the hard questions facing U.S. crude oil, natural gas, and NGL markets. As it turns out, beyond the immediate chaos of the pandemic, there is a new order taking shape, and that’s what we laid out in the RBN Fall Virtual School of Energy, sharing our results and the Excel spreadsheets behind the models to get you ready for what’s coming. Some of what we expected has come to fruition, and we still think that there is a pretty good chance that the rest will unfold in the months and years ahead. If you weren’t able to join us for the live broadcast, we invite you to sit by the fire, put your feet up and dig in over the holidays. The entire 14+ hours of streaming content, plus slide decks and spreadsheets, are available online. Today’s advertorial blog provides highlights from our key findings and the overall conference curriculum.
Canadian crude output is rising, requiring new export routes. As traditional pathways face constraints, the U.S. Rockies—especially the Guernsey, WY hub—are emerging as key corridors for moving Canadian heavy crude to downstream markets, including the Gulf Coast.
Cataclysmic events have a way of perforating time into the “before” and “after” for those living through it, and the pandemic this year has certainly been one of those events. Many aspects of life and work were upended this year, including for the energy sector. With oil and gas prices and demand plunging to historical lows, what was the modus operandi before the pandemic no longer made sense after, and what had gone against all conventional wisdom before, suddenly was the norm after. Shale producers who had shunned the idea of economically driven, short-term wellhead shut-ins, made the decision to temporarily shut-in existing wells. Global offtakers for U.S. LNG exports who had reliably taken contracted cargoes for four years, broke rank and canceled more than 150 cargoes this summer as international gas demand and price spreads were crushed. Those are just a couple of examples of the anomalies this year. Some of the market behavior will eventually revert to some semblance of what it was before. Other things will never be quite the same.
So that’s the framework with which we approached School of Energy this fall. We assessed how the markets were affected by and adapted to the turmoil of 2020, and — based on what we know so far and a rigorous analysis of fundamentals using RBN’s energy models — we put forth our best efforts at reimagining the rulebook of how the markets will operate in a post-COVID world.
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About the song
"Are You Ready" was written by Mark Farner, and appears as the opening track on side one of Grand Funk Railroad's debut studio album, On Time. Personnel on the record were: Mark Farner (lead vocal, guitar), Don Brewer (drums, backing vocals), and Mel Schacher (bass).
On Time was recorded in three days in July 1969, with Terry Knight producing. After appearing at the Atlanta Pop Festival in 1969, the band was signed by Capitol Records. Released in August 1969, On Time went to number 27 on the Billboard 200 Albums chart, and has been certified Gold by the Recording Industry Association of America. Two singles were released from the album. Critics of the record said it sounded like demos, and, in fact, some of it may have been. A lot of dates and hype of the band from manager and producer Terry Knight, a known huckster in the vein of Colonel Tom Parker, don't line up chronologically. The band later sued Terry Knight, and lost in court, leaving them bankrupt.
Grand Funk Railroad, also known as "Grand Funk," is an American hard rock band formed in Flint, Michigan, in 1969 by Mark Farner, Don Brewer, and Mel Schacher. The name is a play on words for the Grand Trunk Western Railroad, a rail line that ran through Michigan. They have released 15 studio albums, four live albums, eight compilation albums, and 26 singles. They have earned six Gold, and eight Platinum albums, as certified by the RIAA. Ten members have been in Grand Funk Railroad over the years. Mark Farner still records and tours as a solo artist. Don Brewer (after serving as Bob Seger's drummer for many years), and Mel Schacher, still tour as Grand Funk Railroad. They are joined by touring musicians Max Carl, Bruce Kulick, and Tim Cashion.
