Natural gas prices at the Waha hub in West Texas plunged below zero again recently after force majeure and maintenance events across multiple pipelines left Permian producers scrambling to move their gas out. Persistent congestion will remain a big headache this fall and likely again in the spring, before the new Blackcomb and Hugh Brinson pipelines come online in 2026. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll highlight the importance of gas-flow analysis and pipeline modeling to preview our upcoming Natural Gas Master Class, which features real-world examples from today’s market, including a look at recent negative pricing in the Permian and Appalachian outflows on Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP).
Understanding gas flows in the Permian and elsewhere has never been more crucial. The ability to read pipeline data, model regional production and forecast market shifts is what separates accurate analysis from guesswork. Negative gas pricing at Waha happened a record 49 times last year and at least eight times so far this year (where the blue line dips below zero in Figure 1 below). This is directly linked to pipeline outages, seasonal maintenance and surging Permian production. When these events happen, it means surplus gas is trapped, driving spot prices lower.
Figure 1. Waha Cash Prices. Source: Natural Gas Intelligence
While the mechanics of that are the same in every pipeline basin, the Permian is unique in that its producers will tolerate negative pricing at the margin. (Keep in mind that most producers and marketers have a combination of price hedges and contracted pipeline capacity for some portion of their supply and don’t necessarily suffer the worst spot prices.) So, while Appalachian producers may cut back or, in a worst-case scenario, curtail output if prices get too low, in the Permian, where oil economics are the driver, producers keep going, often driving cash prices into negative territory.
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About the song
“Missing Piece” was written by James Keogh (Vance Joy) and Joel Little. It appears as the third song on side one of Vance Joy’s third studio album, In Our Own Sweet Time. Released as a single in May 2021, it went to #4 on the Billboard Rock & Alternative Airplay and #19 on the Billboard Hot Rock & Alternative Singles charts. It has been certified Gold by the Recording Industry Association of America. Joy said the song is about “being separated from someone you love.” It made its television debut in the 17th season of Grey’s Anatomy. The song won “Best Video” at the 2021 ARIA Music Awards. Personnel on the record were: Vance Joy (vocals, guitar), Edwin White (drums) and Joel Little (bass, programming).
In Our Own Sweet Time was recorded in 2021 at Joy’s home studio in Barcelona, where he lived at the time. Self-produced, along with his songwriting collaborators, the album was released in June 2022 and went to #81 on the Billboard 200 Albums chart. Five singles were released from the LP.
Vance Joy (James Keogh) is an Australian singer, songwriter and musician. He released his first single, “From Afar,” in January 2013. His song “Riptide,” released in March 2013, was featured in a U.S. GoPro television commercial, resulting in a deal with Atlantic Records. It became a worldwide hit, being certified 10x Platinum by the RIAA. He has released three studio albums, two live albums, an EP, and 22 singles. Joy resides with his wife and family in Shelburne, VT. He continues to record and tour and is on tour through September in the U.S. He plays the Harvest Rock Festival in Adelaide, Australia, in October.
