The U.S. will need to capture and store at least 400 million tons per annum (MMtpa) of carbon dioxide (CO2) — and as much as 1,800 MMtpa — by 2050 to meet its energy transition goals, the Department of Energy said in a new report, Pathways to Commerical Liftoff: Carbon Management, published Monday. The U.S. currently has about 20 MMtpa of carbon-capture capacity, the most worldwide, but it’s only about 1%-5% of what it will need by 2050, which could require investments of up to $100 billion by 2030 and $600 billion by 2050.
Increases in the value of the 45Q tax credit for carbon sequestration, which were included in last year’s passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, have provided a greater incentive and more certainty to developers and investors and are likely to yield attractive returns for several types of projects, the report said. The report cited the U.S.’s excellent geology for storing CO2 and its relatively abundant low-cost, zero-carbon energy resources that can power carbon dioxide removal (CDR) projects.
The report outlines the path to meaningful scale in carbon management, with a focus on short- and long-term priorities.
For near-term (through 2030) opportunities, projects in industries with high-purity CO2 streams (e.g., ethanol, natural gas processing, hydrogen) have the best project economics. Many of these types of projects are in active development or are already in operation. Large-scale transportation and storage infrastructure is likely to emerge to serve these projects. These developments — along with some demonstration projects in higher-cost carbon management applications (e.g., steel, cement) — will lay the foundation for more widespread deployment.
