Over the past three weeks, crude oil exports out of the Gulf Coast have averaged just above 3.1 MMb/d. Last week, this trend was broken, as export volumes jumped above the four-week moving average to nearly 3.6 MMb/d (far right of chart below) as outlined in our Crude Voyager Report. This increase was driven by higher loadings bound for Latin America and the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region which had exhibited softness in prior weeks. Notably, export activity out of terminals in the Beaumont area reached nearly 480 Mb/d, marking the second-highest weekly total for the region in 2025.
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Fear Inoculum - Oil Market Shows Concern, Not Panic, Over U.S.-Iran Face-Off
Fear about supply interruption isn’t the frantic force it used to be in the crude oil market. A deadly confrontation that might have pushed the U.S. and Iran to the verge of war raised the spot Brent crude oil price to above $70/bbl early in the week of January 6. Despite continuing regional concerns, the price quickly subsided. By January 13, Brent spot had fallen to $64.14/bbl, its lowest point since December 3. Before the Shale Era, a U.S.-Iranian face-off may well have launched Brent crude to well over $100/bbl as oil traders blew fuses over the heightened possibility of disruption to Persian Gulf oil production and transportation. There’s nothing like adequacy of supply, globally dispersed, to keep things calm — or at least calmer than they would have been if the U.S. and Iran had drawn so much sword a dozen years ago. In this blog, we’ll discuss where U.S. crude exports have been heading, how close the oil gets to strategically touchy areas, and whether the market still has reason to worry about disruption to oil supply.