U.S. crude exports dipped slightly to 3.9 MMbbl/d for the week ending 3/29. The four-week moving average (blue line in chart below) continues to trend down with these lower loadings. Exports destined for Canada and Europe were up last week while shipments to Asia and Africa were down and Latin America was flat. Although exports to Europe were up week-on-week, volumes in the second half of March were down compared to normal. The region is heading into peak refinery maintenance season.
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- Analyst Insight
Crude Exports Drop to 3.2 MMbbl/d
Increase in U.S. crude exports to Europe fail to make up for decline in exports to Asia.
- Blog
Flirtin' with Disaster - COVID-19 Shutdowns Compound Weak Gas Demand Fundamentals
While the crude oil market meltdown has taken center stage in recent weeks, and for good reason, the natural gas market is bracing for its own fallout. The CME/NYMEX Henry Hub April futures price, which was already at a multi-year low, buckled last week, falling to as low as $1.602/MMBtu on March 23, and expired Friday at $1.634/MMBtu, the lowest April expiration settle since 1995. On its first day in prompt position, the May futures contract yesterday eked out a late-day, 1.9-cent gain that brought it back up near $1.70/MMBtu as traders continued weighing competing market factors. Gas futures earlier in March were initially buoyed by the assumption that the low oil-price environment would slow associated gas production — and it will, eventually. But that initial bullish sentiment was quickly usurped by the more immediate effects of demand losses resulting from the economic slowdown caused by COVID-19, as well as from mild weather. Today, we look at how these developments are shaping gas supply-demand fundamentals heading into the gas storage injection season.
- Blog
Crudes on the Run – Brent/WTI and LLS Under Pressure From Increased Supplies
This week on Monday WTI prices crossed the $100/Bbl mark for the first time since the end of December (they closed at $100.37/Bbl yesterday February 12, 2014). Brent crude traded at a $19/Bbl premium to WTI at the end of November but the spread has fallen to less than $10/Bbl in recent weeks ($8.42/Bbl yesterday). One of the biggest concerns hanging over the crude market is the fear of oversupply – both inside and outside the US – with the forward curves pointing towards WTI at $78/Bbl and Brent at $90/Bbl by 2020. Today we provide an update on the crude market.
